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Issue 26: July-August 2003

Accident is North Korea's big
nuclear threat – UNU expert

Hazel Smith

A UN University expert has warned that poverty and a low level of technology in North Korea make a nuclear accident a more imminent threat than a deliberate missile attack.

"I would be very worried about a nuclear accident, rather than a nuclear planned missile," said Dr. Hazel Smith, a senior academic programme officer and North Korea expert with UNU's Peace and Governance Programme in Tokyo.

Last October, Washington said Pyongyang had admitted to a covert program to enrich uranium for nuclear arms in addition to a plutonium program frozen under a 1994 U.S.-North Korea pact.

But in a speech to the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan reported by Reuters, Dr. Smith said said that after recent discussions with North Korea experts at the U.S. State Department she did not believe there was any evidence that North Korea possesses nuclear weapons, saying much of the population is struggling for survival.

She estimated that North Korea budgets around $20 a year per member of its 1 million strong military for defense, including clothing, food, and shelter.

Smith said Pyongyang might be willing and able to develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent in future but would probably be prepared to discuss disposing of them.

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