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All factions |
A two-year research study on five global flashpoints – Northern Ireland, Israel/Palestine, Sri Lanka, South Africa and the Basque Country in Spain – has concluded that lasting peace agreements are unlikely unless they involve every faction capable of scuttling a deal. The study, conducted by the Initiative on Conflict Resolution and Ethnicity, a joint initiative of UNU and the University of Ulster in Northern Ireland, points out that the most recent successful peace processes have included warring parties who are in a position to prevent settlement. The so-called "veto holders" are not only assorted armed groups but also political parties representing the fighters. Titled "Coming out of Violence," the study is based on interviews with senior politicians and policy-makers involved in five recent peace processes. According to the study, presented
Feb. 13 at a seminar hosted by UNU at the U.N. Secretariat in New York,
the settlement in South Africa started with the release of Nelson Mandela
and other African National Congress (ANC) prisoners in 1990. In Northern Ireland, there were seven unsuccessful attempts to reach agreements through negotiations between constitutional politicians – until the inclusion of Sinn Fein and the loyalist parties that led to an agreement. The unwillingness of the Spanish government to treat directly with Basque separatists was a serious obstacle to negotiations during most of the 1990s, the study noted. And the absence of a political front for the Kosovo paramilitaries in early 1998 was a stumbling block to initiating peace talks with the Serbians. In an attempt to settle the 18-year-old separatist war in Sri Lanka, the government has recently agreed to negotiate with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), using Norway as a "facilitator."
The authors of the study, John Darby and Roger MacGinty, identify six features that characterize the five peace processes -- violence, progress towards a political settlement, the economy, external actors, public opinion and symbols. The list is not exhaustive; disputes about territory, for example, are central to the conflicts in Israel/Palestine and Sri Lanka, and have less influence in Ireland, South Africa and Basque Country. Nor do the factors carry equal weight. Of the six variables, violence and progression towards a political settlement are the main determinants of success or failure, and they are inextricably linked. "Violence was usually the
lever which moved governments to talks. It is more easily turned
on than switched off," the study notes. Professor Darby is Senior Fellow,
INCORE and Visiting Professor, Notre Dame University; Dr. MacGinty is
Lecturer in Post Conflict Reconstruction Unit at York University. For more information, please contact INCORE.
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