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PEASANT ECONOMICS, GOVERNMENT POLICY, AND THE SUSTAINABILITY DEBATE

Following these analyses, the main points of the paper are now drawn out. First, it should be clear that standard economic analysis of these low-income rural households, which lacks both ecological awareness and appreciation of the extent of natural resource utilization, has ignored important sources of economic values and determinants of economic strategies. Natural habitats contribute to (and sometimes determine) household consumption, production, asset formation and management, and risk-spreading activities: most, indeed, of the areas that economic analysis of peasant households has sought to explore. Without an integration of economic and ecological analysis, then, a proper understanding both of peasant economics and environmental change is unlikely to emerge.

The second point concerns government environmental policy towards the Communal Areas. For a long time, government and technocrats have highlighted soil erosion as one of the main environmental problems of the Communal Areas. Before discussing policies concerning this problem, it is worth pointing out that the physical database concerning Communal Area soils is poor. Many sources have studied soil erosion and resulting soil nutrient losses (inter alia Elwell 1983, Elwell and Stocking 1988, Whitlow 1988, Whitlow and Campbell 1989), and the general consensus is that parts of the Communal Areas face serious erosion problems. Whitlow and Campbell (1989), for example, find that over 25 per cent of the Communal Areas are severely or very severely eroded, as against less than 2 per cent in Commercial Farming Areas. At times technocratic warnings about the incipient dangers of soil erosion have been apocalyptic: 'If soil erosion is not checked immediately by a dynamic policy based on reliable technical information, we will witness mass starvation within our lifetime' (Elwell 1983).

However, these studies all have methodological difficulties. Some are based on extrapolations from the Soil Loss Estimating Model for Southern Africa. Tests have shown, though, that such extrapolations overestimate the extent of erosion by at least a factor of two, and possibly up to a factor of 30 (Roberts and Lambert 1990). Other studies are based on aerial photographs: however, mapping from these to actual erosion is far from perfect and in general, extensive ground-truthing is a necessary component of such studies. No systematic study of this sort has been carried out in Zimbabwe. Finally, some studies have generalized from plot data, but these do not provide a reliable basis on which to draw broad conclusions. So, while erosion well may be a problem in some areas, the exact dimensions of the issue are unclear.

Despite this, a variety of policies have been enacted to tackle soil erosion. For soil erosion in fields, the government has concentrated since the 1930s on the construction and maintenance of contour ridges, and more recently has promoted tied ridging and shallow ploughing as antierosion measures. There is a debate as to the effectiveness of these measures (see Bradley and Dewees 1993). Here, however, the focus is on attempts to reduce erosion in the communal grazing lands. The government has argued for many years that the cause of soil erosion here is the overstocking of cattle, as this quote from the First Five-Year Development Plan (1986-90) demonstrates.

The most important aspect of livestock production which is occupying the mind of government is the accelerating and continuous deleterious effects of overstocking and overgrazing in the communal lands which are causing severe and potentially irreversible ecological degradation.

Cattle overstocking and overgrazing leads, it is argued, to the reduction of herbaceous cover, increasing the exposure of soils to rain and wind. This increased exposure results in the compaction of soils, an effect exacerbated by trampling by hooves: consequently, water infiltration is reduced, and soil run-off increases (Swift et al 1989). In order to judge the extent of overstocking, governments both before and after Independence have developed recommended per hectare stocking rates for livestock in the Communal Areas, stocking rates which they believe are consistent with an non-degraded environment. However, actual stocking rates have been persistently above these levels, often exceeding recommended rates by factors of two or three (summing and Bond 1991). In the government's view, this overstocking is due to the property rights system of the grazing lands, with open access leading to a classic 'tragedy of the commons' (Abel and Blaikie 1990).

In response, the government has periodically attempted to reduce cattle numbers, either through forcible destocking, or through incentives to send cattle for slaughter. This reduction has been attempted despite the critical importance of cattle to the agropastoral system, and hence the considerable welfare loss destocking inflicts on Communal Area farmers. However, the whole overstocking hypothesis, by which these actions are justified, is based on two fallacies. The first is economic. Recommended stocking rates for Communal Areas are derived from research carried out on Commercial Farming Areas (Scoones 1989a). But (beef-producing) commercial farms have quite singular economic objectives for cattle, namely the maximization of quality meat production. This requires well fed cattle. As a result, for a given hectarage, such producers will choose to have a smaller number of cattle with a resultingly more abundant standing crop of grass. In contrast, cattle in the Communal Areas are multiple-use assets, and farmer objectives are to maximize cattle numbers. They will therefore choose, for a given hectarage, to have a higher number of less well-fed cattle, the reason for the much higher stocking rates of the Communal Areas. Further, as stocking rates for commercial farms are well within ecological carrying capacity, these higher stocking rates - well above official rates - can be maintained without inflicting irreversible ecological damage (Behnke and Scoones 1992).

The second fallacy is ecological. The 'stocking rates' argument depends on there being a stable function relating cattle numbers to grass cover, with the animal-plant interaction the chief determinant of both populations. However, this is at odds with savanna ecology, which stresses
rainfall variability as the key determinant of primary productivity and therefore also of herbivore numbers. In this schema, scarcities in grass cover are caused by droughts, not grazing pressure: these droughts then cause reductions in livestock numbers, which reduces grazing pressure in subsequent years, allowing recovery of grazing lands and an eventual recovery in cattle numbers until the next drought intervenes. Livestock numbers and grass cover are not determined endogenously, but exogenously by rainfall levels: attempting to revive grassland through manipulating livestock numbers is thus misguided. Furthermore, in savanna systems marked by instabilities and unpredictabilities, sticking to a single stocking rate is an inappropriate management goal (Ellis and Swift 1988, Mentis et al 1989).

This view of Communal Area cattle numbers is borne out in the study by Scoones (1990) of 60 years of livestock data. This found that cattle numbers, following a run of good years, do come close to ecological carrying capacity, but that this is rarely attained due to the intervention of drought, which results in cattle die-offs. In general, the study confirmed that cattle numbers are determined by rainfall variability, thus undermining the ecological basis of the stocking rate policy. In conclusion, then, one can say that destocking policies, which reduce agricultural incomes and household assets, have been implemented as a result of an inadequate understanding of peasant economics, and a lack on the part of policy makers both of ecological knowledge and a comprehension of the interactions between peasant production and the environment.

This is not the only government policy about which the same conclusion could be reached. For example, in an attempt to improve the open access 'problem', the government has spent considerable time and resources trying to promote the formation of fenced grazing schemes in the Communal Areas. These schemes have largely failed, primarily because administrators were ignorant of the importance of spatial movements of livestock and the role of 'key resources' discussed earlier. Schemes were designed which failed to guarantee access by pastoralists to different ecological patches, and thereby, if implemented, would have undermined the livestock system rather than supporting it (Cousins 1992). As a result, these grazing management schemes were largely ignored or subverted if actually put into practice.

Similar issues arose in the World Bank-funded Rural Afforestation Project, which was an attempt to reverse the continuing clearance of woodlands in the Communal Areas. This project focused on the planting of the rapid-growing eucalyptus tree, with seedlings provided from 48 nurseries in 16 Communal Area districts. The basis of the project was the belief that the Communal Areas faced increasingly critical fuelwood shortages, and that such shortages were the cause of deforestation. Little research was done before the start of the project to test these propositions: however, as noted previously, the assumptions were largely incorrect. Furthermore, the project made little progress in meeting other, more critical wood demands; farmers' interest in and demand for indigenous trees were not addressed; and no attempt was made to set up viable institutions for the management of remaining woodlands (Bradley and McNamara 1993).

A final example of environmentally-suspect government policy is attempts to get farmers to destump the trees from their crop fields. This policy has been promoted by successive governments since the 1930s. Pressure has been put on farmers to destump - despite the immense labour involved - both by extension agencies, and by making it a requirement for granting an individual the certificate of 'Master Farmer', possession of which brings considerable benefits (eg cheap inputs, free ploughing, extension advice). Little attention has been paid by the technocratic agencies to farmers' own justifications for leaving trees in fields, such as fruits, improved crops and woodland conservation, and indeed the preservation of such trees is an example of peasant conservation activity undertaken in spite of the direction of state policy.

This review of government policy thus suggests a direct parallel with the conclusions drawn earlier for the discipline of economics. Both have ignored the importance of environmental resources in the household economy, and the need to understand environmental dynamics for an adequate comprehension of rural strategies and behaviour. Further, in the case of government, policies aimed at improving environmental resources have sometimes undermined household welfare or have had little identifiable environmental benefit.

Finally, there is the question of sustainability. Underlying much work on environmental management is an attempt to analyse whether communities are using resources sustainably. Underlying this paper is the contention that, in the system analysed, little useful can be said on the subject. Three problems are paramount.

1. Any analysis of sustainability must specify accurately what unsustainability (resource degradation) is. It is clear from the discussion of savanna ecology that such a specification is absent and is in principle difficult to establish. Most applications of sustainability to renewable resources emphasize non-decreasing resource stocks as a key indicator. This is inappropriate for savanna ecosystems, which could be characterized as 'density-vague' (ie where dynamics are bounded but where the system hows little preference for individual values - the grass/livestock interaction is an example), and indeed where the resilience (sustainability) of the ecosystem is believed to be tied to the maintenance of continual shocks and hence stock variability. As a result, many researchers have warned about the difficulty of deriving any reliable indicators of environmental degradation in these types of ecosystems (Abel and Blaikie 1988, Scoones and Wilson 1989, Walker 1989, Cumming and Bond 1991, Behnke and Scoones 1992). 18 The material in this paragraph derives from Wilson (1989).

2. As indicators of degradation are not forthcoming, statements concerning environmental degradation require careful scrutiny. For example, in the Zimbabwe context it is often implicitly assumed that woodland clearance represents degradation: however, such clearance may actually raise the economic productivity of an area, by increasing browse and fuelwood availability (Scoones and Matose 1993) and by augmenting the population numbers of species (eg grazing mammals, certain insect species) which are valued in local diets (Wilson 1989b). Both these studies stress that there is no intrinsic reason to label the agro-ecological change they chart as 'degradation', despite such labelling by government and technocrats. Another example is given in Cavendish (forthcoming). In his research area, before the 1991/92 drought, cattle numbers were high and range condition was poor, leading to concerns about environmental degradation. Following the cattle die-off and reduction in grazing pressure, rangelands recovered dramatically, with a result that local informants were unable to remember a time of equivalent grass abundance. The conclusion is, then, that any evaluations of sustainability must be made within a framework that adequately integrates both the complexity of ecosystem relationships and the economic goals of resource managers. Such work is rare.

3. Even if this framework was available, there is a paucity of reliable data on which to make defensible judgements about sustainability. Data problems have already been discussed for soils: suffice it to point out that for similar reasons, equivalent difficulties exist in analysing both the extent of woodland cover and its rate of change (Bradley and Dewees 1993). In this context of data uncertainty, there are great dangers in making assumptions about environmental degradation and consequently implementing 'pro-environment' policies, as these policies can be irrelevant or at worst exacerbate the problem they were intended to solve.

For these three reasons, then, extreme care should be used both in making and judging claims of environmental sustainability.

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