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The population situation

Demographic Trends and Contrasts

The countries comprising the South-East Asian region-Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam and Papua New Guine'-vary in terms of population size and land area. The fastest-growing among these countries is Brunei which recorded an increase of 44 per cent during 198(}90. At the other extreme is Singapore with a change of 13 per cent over the same period. Cambodia, Laos and the Philippines each grew by about 29 per cent in the 1980s.

In 1980, the region's population stood at 363.1 million. The smallest contribution to this total (5 per cent) came from Brunei's 185,000 people, and the largest (42 per cent) was accounted for by Indonesia's 151 million. Vietnam's 53.7 million and the Philippines' 48.3 million were the next largest populations. By 1990, the region was estimated to have a population in excess of 450 million. Three countries-Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines- provided 70 per cent of this total (Table 2.1). At the turn of the century, the contribution of these three countries will remain unchanged at 70 per cent and will be maintained at that level even to the year 2010.

TABLE 2. 1 Total Population by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980-2010 ('000)

Source: UN ( 1991c).
Notes: Totals may not he exact in this and following fables because of rounding. Figures from 1990 onwards are from the 'medium variant
a Subregional totals for South-East Asia do no' include Papua New Guinea. hut for the purposes of this review it has been listed under South-East Asia.
b Subregional totals for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

The demographic diversity of the region is underscored in terms of the crude density ratios (Table 2.2). In 1980, Papua New Guinea had around 7 persons inhabiting a square kilometre of land while Singapore's corresponding people-to-land ratio was 3,908. Ten years later, the crude densities were 8 and 4,406 respectively. Although not close to Singapore's crowded city conditions, the Philippines and Vietnam were the two nations with the next highest densities, ranging from about 160 persons per square kilometre in 1980 to a projected figure of between 294 and 307 persons per square kilometre three decades later. Among the subregions of ESCAP, it can be seen that South Asia is the most densely populated while Oceania averages 3 persons per square kilometre (but this masks considerable inter-country variations: 2 for Australia to over 400 for Nauru).

TABLE 2.2 Crude Density Ratios by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980 2010

Source: U N (1991a)
a Subregional ratios for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional ratios for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

During the first half of the 1980s, the region's annual rate of population growth was reported to be 2.2 per cent (Table 2.3). The variation in rates is illustrated by the difference between the highest (3.8 per cent for Brunei) and the lowest (1.2 per cent for Singapore). If Brunei maintains this rate, its 1980 population can easily double by the year 1998. Declines in the rates of change are expected in the first half of the 1990s with the region's growth rate projected to drop by 0.24 percentage points to 1.9 per cent. The largest decline will be in Brunei ( 1.3 percentage points), followed by Thailand with 0.6. However, the projected faster growth rates of Laos and Vietnam during 1990-5 should be noted. In 20 years, all annual rates of population growth are anticipated to fall below 1.9 per cent, except that of Laos which will stay around 2.4 per cent and Papua New Guinea at close to 2 per cent. The slowest-growing ESCAP subregion is East Asia; the fastest, South Asia.

Focusing on the components of growth, both South-East and South Asia had crude birth-rates in excess of the ESCAP regional average of 28 per thousand population over 1980-5 (Table 2.4). This gap narrows considerably by 1990-5 and, at least for South-East Asia, is down to 0.7 per thousand by 2000-5. However, intraregional variations in birth-rates were evident for 1980-5, with Singapore's 17 births per thousand at one extreme and Cambodia's 46 per thousand at the other. The wide disparity will still exist ten years later but Laos will have the highest rate of 44 births per thousand. By the twenty-first century, seven of the ten countries are predicted to still have crude birth-rates in excess of 20 per thousand. East Asia and Oceania both have lower than average birthrates over the whole period.

TABLE 2.3 Annual Rates of Population Growth by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980-5, 1990 5 and 2000 5 (per cent)

Source: As for Table 2. 1.
Note: Rates shown are from the 'medium variant' .
a Subregional rates for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional rates for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

The notable diversity in fertility within the region can be attributed to two factors: rising age at marriage and organized family-planning programmes. However, the contribution of the former is fast approaching a limit; hence, any further declines in fertility will be dependent on the extent and quality of family-planning practices among couples of childbearing age.

The crude death-rate for the ESCAP region was close to 10 deaths per thousand in 1980-5, is projected to decline to below 9 in the following decade, and is forecast to drop to less than 8 during 2000-5. Again, it will be noted that East Asia and Oceania reported death-rates that were close to the minimum level. Health-related programmes undertaken in the 1950s and 1960s were mainly focused on the control of selected infectious diseases. Such programmes did not require substantial investments in health infrastructure and personnel training. Some of the measures adopted in the control of disease and mortality could be administered almost independently of the country's stage of social and economic development. The varied methods used by countries in the control of disease and mortality, as well as their diverse patterns of social and economic change, resulted in considerable variations in the pace of mortality decline inter- and intra-regionally. Pronounced inter-country variations in deathrates were manifest in 1980-5 (Table 2.5). The difference was about 14 deaths between the highest ( 19.7 deaths per thousand Cambodians) and the lowest (5.4 deaths per thousand Singaporeans). The gap is expected to narrow somewhat in 1990-5 when the difference between the highest (15.1 for Laos) and the lowest (5.1 for Malaysia) will be 10 deaths. By the beginning of the twenty-first century, only Cambodia and Laos are expected to have death-rates of around 11 per thousand.

TABLE 2.4 Crude Birth-rates by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1981-5, 1990-5 and 2000-5 (per thousand)

Source: As for Table 2.1.
Note: Comparable figures for Brunei are not available.
a Subregional rates for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional rates for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

Consequences of the Changing Age Distribution

With the projected declines in fertility and mortality, it is anticipated that the age structure of South-East Asian populations will undergo some transformation. The situation in mid1990 was reassessed by the United Nations (UN) (Table 2.6). It is obvious that only Singapore, which had achieved replacement fertility in 1975, has experienced an upward shift in age structure. Thailand's later fertility decline is evident in the low level of child dependency but a sizeable youth component. The other countries still have significant proportions of infants and young children as well as juvenile entrants into the labour force.

TABLE 2.5 Crude Death-rates by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980-5, 1990 5 and 2000 5 (per thousand)

Source: As for Table 2.1.
Note: Comparable figures for Brunei are not available.
a Subregional rates for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional rates for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

The number entering the working-age population of 15 years and above is determined by the levels of fertility and mortality 15 years earlier. Since past fertility has been high, the growth in labour force will remain higher than the rate of natural increase (births minus deaths), and is projected to exceed the population growth rate in those countries of South-East Asia where fertility has declined (Table 2.7). However, a note of caution must be sounded here. The labour-force projections in Table 2.7 have been based on earlier optimistic projections of the UN and have not been revised in line with the 1990 reassessment undertaken by the UN Secretariat.

The data suggest that in countries where fertility has fallen rapidly, the growth of the labour force soon drops behind that of the total population. The exception is Malaysia, which changed its policy in 1984 to one of encouraging population growth. In countries where the birth-rates continue to be high, the yearly rate of increase in the population of working age is expected to surpass 2 per cent in the twenty-first century. Governments in the region will be hard-pressed to provide employment for all these entrants into the labour market.

The changes in age structure will be accompanied by modifications in the causes of death, which are related in part to industrialization. The risks of road accidents and occupational hazards will grow. At the same time, age, sex and socio-economic factors must be considered in the occurrence of particular diseases. Farm workers and labourers may be exposed to a greater risk of infectious and parasitic diseases while professionals, managers and other white-collar workers may succumb to mental disorders, cerebro-vascular and cardiovascular diseases and malignant neoplasms. Policy makers wishing to improve the health of the working-age population will need to address these issues.

TABLE 2.6 Share of Population in Selected Age-groups by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1990 (per cent)

Source: As for Table 2.1.
Note: Comparable figures for Brunei are not available.
a Subregional percentages for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional percentages for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

The still high population growth in South-East Asia as a whole in 1990-5 (estimated at over 1.9 per cent, see Table 2.3) is an outcome of high fertility and falling mortality in the past three decades. This means that women entering the childbearing ages constitute a major part of the total female population. These proportions will rise until beyond the turn of the twenty-first century for a number of countries (Table 2.8). Therefore, the size of the next generation of childbearing women can be expected to surpass the preceding one. Even if the number of births per woman diminished, the total number of births will still be greater than previous generations. Consequently, the rate of decline in the birthrates of these countries may decelerate, possibly stalling the reduction in growth rates unless countered by a rapid drop in the fertility of the younger married women. The latter should be the target of more effective family-planning programmes and other associated socio-economic changes.

TABLE 2.7 Annual Growth Rates of Population and of the Labour Force by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980-5, 1990-5 and 2000-5

Sources: See Table 2.3 for population growth rates. Labour force rates of growth were obtained from UN (1988).
Note: Comparable figures for Brunei are not available.
a Subregional rates for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional rates for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

TABLE 2.8 Share of Female Population Aged 15-49 Years by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980-2010 (per cent)

Source: Computed from UN (1991b).
Note: Percentages are from the 'medium variant' . Comparable figures for Brunei are no' available.
a Subregional percentages for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional percentages for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

Changes in Spatial Distribution

The spatial distribution of population is an issue of national importance because of its manifold implications for development and the environment. Internal migration and urbanization, the most prominent aspects of spatial distribution, are of considerable concern to every government in the region. In mid-1990, the fraction of urban residents in South-East Asia varied from a low of 12 per cent in Cambodia to 100 per cent in Singapore's city-state. Brunei had nearly 60 per cent of its inhabitants dwelling in cities while the corresponding proportion for Malaysia and the Philippines was over 40 per cent. Migration to the cities will account for as much as 50 per cent of future urban growth. Indeed, the impact of migrants on urban growth may be greater than just a mere tabulation of their numbers. The selectivity of migration is such that flows into urban areas are predominantly made up of young adults whose birth-rates may exceed those of city dwellers.

The population in rural areas is not only growing at a pace very much below that of urban sectors but in some countries these rates are projected to become negative by the beginning of the twenty-first century (Table 2.9). From the annual growth rates estimated for towns and cities, it is evident that their populations will easily double in less than 15 years. Meanwhile, the rural populations will hardly grow and may even reduce in numbers in the coming century. These trends will clearly affect the balance of population between town and country. The social costs of such an imbalance may prove to be unacceptable in the long run.

TABLE 2.9 Rural and Urban Population Growth Rates by ESCAP Subregion and by Country in South-East Asia, 1980-5,1990-5 and 2000-5 (average annual percentage)

Source: As for Table 2.1.
Note: Comparable figures for Brunei are not available.
a Subregional rates for South-East Asia do not include Papua New Guinea.
b Subregional rates for Oceania include Papua New Guinea.

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