This book is based on research carried out under the auspices of the United Nations University programme on 'Sustainable Environmental Futures'. The Yogyakarta conference in May 1991 was the first in a series of regional conferences planned under the programme. The programme focuses on the complex interactions of physical and human activities in changing the environment, especially in the tropical regions of the world. The overall aim of the programme is to promote ecologically as well as socially and economically sustainable development through basic and applied research, training and dissemination of information.

The research first identified the driving forces of regional environmental transformation, and then analysed the larger environmental issues, especially those of global change, as well as the specific environmental issues facing the region up to the year 2005. The aim was to consider the constraints on and the possible methods of improved environmental management in the region, and to examine the policy options available to development planners. The book also identifies specific areas of unsustainability and increasing vulnerability, as well as topics for future research and action.

First published in 1993 by
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No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press. Within Malaysia, exceptions are allowed in respect of any fair dealing for the purpose of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act currently in force. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms and in other countries should be sent to Oxford University Press, at the address below

This edition is for sale in Japan and the United States of America only ISBN (United Nations University Press): 92-808-0823-0 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data South-East Asia's environmental future: the search for sustainability edited by Harold Brookfield and Yvonne Byron. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 9676530255 (Oxford University Press):

1. Asia, Southeastern—Environmental conditions.
2. Environmental protection—Asia, Southeastern.
3. Conservation of natural resources—Asia, Southeastern.
I. Brookfield, Harold.
II. Byron, Yvonne,1950
GE 160 A785S64 1993
363.7'02'0959 dc20
93-10193
CIP

Typeset by Typeset Gallery Sdn. Bhd, Malaysia
Printed by Kyodo Printing Co. (S) Pte. Ltd., Singapore
Published by Oxford University Press,
19-25, Jalan Kunchai Lama, 58200 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Abbreviations and glossary

Notes on contributors

Part I - The driving forces of change

Introduction
1. The dimensions of environmental change and management in the south-east Asian region

Introduction
Trends of the mid-1970s to 1980s
Some explanatory variables
Projecting trends into the future
The conditions of resource management in the region
The main environmental issues
The need for a new concept of common resources

2. Population growth in south-east Asia: Pushing the limits

Introduction
The population situation
Population growth and the environment
The future

3. Industrialization and urbanization in south-east Asia

Trends in economic growth, 1961-1987
Structural change
Factors responsible for strong ASEAN growth
Trends in urbanization
Urban primacy and megacity issues
Levers to influence urbanization and urban structure
Conclusion

Development problems and the environment
4. Energy and mineral development: Environment and economics

Introduction
Global economic development: energy and minerals
Environment and resource attributes of south-east Asia
Energy and mineral demand in the Asia-pacific region
Assessing environmental costs
Non-conventional and alternative energy and minerals
Economic development, environment and the future
Summary and conclusions
Editorial comment

5. The onslaught on the forests in south-east Asia

The nature of the forest resource
Deforestation and forest degradation: Apportioning blame
Managing the forest: The role of government in land-use planning
Rebuilding the forests
The future of the forests

Notes on co-operative management
In defence of south-east Asia

Editorial comment

Part II - Climatic change and variability

Introduction
6. Climate model predictions for the south-east Asian region

Human-induced climatic change
Predicted climatic changes: The global view
Climate model predictions and the south-east Asian region
Uncertainties and unknowns

Climatic change and public policy
7. Enso, drought and flooding rain in south-east Asia

Introduction
The El Niño-southern oscillation
ENSO and south-east Asia
Effects of ENSO on climate
Impacts of ENSO
ENSO in the past and future
Future work

A successful prediction using unconventional data

Prediction of the 1991 ENSO event in Indonesia
Editorial comment

8. Climatic change and agriculture: Problems for the Asian tropics

Climatic change in tropical Asia, 1910s-1980s
Problems in climate-agriculture relationships: Rice yields in three areas
Flow of impacts of climatic change on agriculture
Concluding remarks

Climatic change in Indonesia

Introduction
The ongoing indonesian climatic change
Possible impact on rice
Editorial comment

Part III - Selected issues: Change and the environment

Introduction
9. Sustaining and expanding the 'green revolution' in rice

An overview of the 'green revolution' in south-east Asia, 1970-1989
Problems of the green revolution
Areas for future endeavour

Ecological policies for sustaining high production in rice: Observations on rice intensification in Indonesia

Introduction
An outline of Indonesia's achievements in the green revolution
The problems of expanding production in Indonesia
Assessing the yield potential of the green revolution
Diminishing biotic diversity and increasing vulnerability
Facing the problems of sustainability
Rice production and sustainability in the 1990s
Editorial comment

10. The problems of upland land management

Introduction
The expansion and intensification of upland agriculture, 1850-1950
Upland agriculture, 1950-1990: Logging, roads, markets and cash
The environmental consequences of upland agricultural expansion: Sustainability and unsustainability
Attempted solutions
What is to be done?

Pitfalls of the intensification debate
Immediate needs in upland Java

Editorial comment

11. The hazard of fire

Introduction
Losses and impairments due to fire
Factors promoting the spread of fire
Reducing the incidence of large-scale fire

A wider view of the fire hazard
The need for management

Editorial comment

12. Coastal, inshore and marine problems

Introduction
Global trends
South-east Asia
The future

The south-east Asian response

Aspects of the physical setting
National and international responses
Editorial comment

Part IV - Selected issues: Peaces and people

Introduction
13. Threatened places
Natural and human hazards

Introduction
Nature's threats
Human threats
Natural hazards and their management
Conclusion

The tragedy of the open access

Introduction
Forest management in Nepal
Managing forest resources in Indonesia
Managing forest resources in Thailand and the Philippines
Management of marine resources
Discussion of common property management

Threatened places: A regional view

Hazards and response
Traditional resource management
Editorial comment

14. On threatened peoples

Introduction
Threatened peoples: Contrasts in composition and environment
Tribal peoples of south-east Asia: Causes and nature of threat
The indigenous socio-economic system: Is it sustainable?
The penan and the timber blockade
Responses to the problems of the threatened peoples of south-east Asia
Conclusion

Sustainability of indigenous socio-economic systems

Editorial comment

15. Urban environmental issues in south-east Asian cities: An overview

Introduction
Major causes of urban environmental degradation
State of urban environments in south-east Asia
Managing the urban environment: Some possibilities
Concluding remarks
Editorial comment

Part V - Conclusions and recommendations

16. Conclusions and recommendations

A set of concerned conclusions
Recommendations for research and future action
The search for sustainability

Bibliography

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