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Impact on calorie and protein production

The above trends in agricultural production resulted in a considerable increase, between 1949/50 and the end of the Fifth Plan, in total calorie production (see FIG. 3. Trends' in Total Calorie Production from Food Grains (in 10 kcal)), a 34 per cent increase in per capita calorie production (see FIG. 4. Trends in Per Capita Calorie Production from Food Grains (in 1.000 kcal)), a large increase in total protein production (see FIG. 5. Trends in Protein Production from Food Grains (in million tonnes)), and a 24 per cent increase in per capita protein production (see FIG. 6. Trends in Per Capita Protein Production (9) from Food Grains (in 10 grams)). Tables 6 and 7 show an overview of per capita protein and calorie production crop-wise at the end of each five-year plan, and for the peak and drought years before and after the introduction of the high-yielding variety programmes (HYVP). Before the HYVP, per capita calorie production through these major foods touched a peak of 2,304 kcal in 1964/65, but after the HYVP it was 2,446 kcal in 1978/79, an increase of 6 per cent even over the peak year.

TABLE 6. Per Capita Calorie Production through Important Agricultural Commodities in India (as kcal)

a. Oilseeds include groundnut, rape, mustard, sesame seed, and linseed.
b. Starchy foods include potato, tapioca, and sweet potato.
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics 1951-1980.

TABLE 7. Per Capita Protein Production through Important Agricultural Commodities in India (in grams)

a. Oilseeds include groundout, rape, mustard, sesame seed, and linseed
b. Starchy foods include potato, tapioca, and sweet potato.
c. In terms of gun
Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics 1951-1980

Production of calories and proteins through food grains made rapid strides during the last decade, largely due to the success of the HYVP for wheat and rice. Per capita levels of 1,320 kcal and 32,62 g of proteins registered in 1978/79 were the highest ever reached since independence. This represents a 28 per cent increase in calories and a 42 per cent increase in proteins over the 1964/65 peak-year production (1,031 kcal and 22.90 g proteins) prior to the HYVP.

Despite introduction of improved strains, per capita calorie and protein outputs through coarse grains remained stagnant. The maximum output of calories - 5.11 kcal per capita - from coarse grain occurred in 1967/68; the drought year 1972/73 was the lowest ever recorded - 367 kcal - and this was lower than the level noticed in the drought year 1965/66, namely 396 kcal per capita.

Pulses are an important source of proteins in the Indian dietary. Calorie and protein production per capita through pulses declined by 26 per cent over the last thirty years. the decline being very conspicuous after 1967/68. Even the drought year 1965/66 saw levels of 191 kcal and 13.43 g proteins per capita, which is higher than the level of 163 kcal and 11.43 g proteins in the drought year 1972/73.

Oilseeds are an important source of calories and proteins. Per capita production of calories and proteins through oilseeds touched a level of 221 kcal and 19.05 g respectively in 1965/66. In 1978/79, this output had declined by 20 per cent for both calories and proteins.

In the case of starchy foods, per capita output of calories, though small, registered a substantial increase, from 34 to 87 kcal per capita. In regard to sugar-cane, the contribution has fluctuated at about 210 to 250 kcal per capita.

TABLE 8. Per Capita Availability of Calories and Proteins in Tamilnadu

Source: Tamilnadu Nutrition Project.

TABLE 9. Impact of New Technology on Total Food Commodities Production in 1978/79 in India

M.T. = million tonnes.
* Significant.

TABLE 10. Impact of New Technology on Total Nutrient Production from Food Grains in 1978/79 in India

M.T. = million tonnes.
* Significant.

TABLE 11. Impact of New Technology on Per Capita Food Commodities Production in 1978/79

* Significant.

TABLE 12. Impact of New Technology on Per Capita Nutrient Production from Food Grains in 1978/79

Detailed analysis of Food Balance Sheets for Tamilnadu during the period 1966/67 to 1977/78 indicate similar trends. Table 8 gives an overview of the increase in net per capita availability of calories and proteins after the introduction of high-yielding rice varieties (Rajagopalan 1978).

This analysis shows that, except for rice and wheat, the impact of recent agricultural development on calorie and protein production is not very significant. What has been gained through wheat and rice seems to have been lost through other crops. Even the increase in output, noted with regard to wheat and rice, is not necessarily due to the impact of agricultural technology. To measure the latter, the possible output during the last decade without the new technology must be surmised. This was estimated using trend lines fitted to the output data from 1949/50 to 1966/67. If the momentum gained during these 17 years had continued, the level of output of wheat and rice in 1978/79 would have been 60 million tonnes of wheat and rice can be ascribed to the impact of new technology. A similar exercise was attempted for coarse grains, pulses and total food grains with the results that are presented in table 9 .

On the whole, a 29 per cent increase in output has arisen from new agricultural technology in the year 1978/79. Ryan and Asokan (1977) found that 15.5 per cent of the increase of food-grain production in 1974/75 was the result of high-yielding wheat varieties in the six major wheat-growing states.

In terms of total calories and protein production through food grains, increases of 29.31 and 19.61 per cent respectively are due to the impact of new agricultural technology. In the case of lysine, the increase in total production due to agricultural technology is 20 per cent. The impact of technology on tryptophan production was highest, namely 4.67 per cent. Similarly, table 10, which gives an overview of the impact on individual nutrients, shows that there have been favourable impacts on other amino acids.

Analysis of the impact of new technology on per capita output, in terms of food grains and of nutrients, is given in tables 11 and 12. The impact on total food grains was of the order of 17.73 per cent, being highest at 28.72 per cent on wheat and rice output per capita. The negative impact on coarse grain indicates a differential bias in the promotion and adoption of new technology. In terms of per capita nutrient output, a 6.93 per cent increase in calories and 15.25 per cent increase in proteins can be ascribed to the new technology. Except for lysine, which showed a decline of 6.07 per cent, the impact of new technology on other amino acids is good, and the 23.82 per cent increase in tryptophan is salutary.

Starchy foods, sugar-cane and oilseeds also exhibit some improvement in per capita production over the plan periods. Since no conscious or intensive efforts have been made to introduce high-yielding varieties in respect of these crops, as in the case of wheat and rice, little impact is perhaps to be expected here. On the other hand, awareness of new technology could prompt use of, say, additional fertilizer when growing any new strains available. Using the same projective techniques (table 9) it is found that actual production of starchy foods in 1978/79 was 17.73 million tonnes. This large increase of 69.8 per cent shows a highly significant effect of new technology on starchy foods, and the same conclusion follows from the per capita projections (table 11).

However, for sugar-cane and oilseeds, the outputs, both total and per capita, are less than the projected figures based on past trends (tables 9 and 11), showing that the new technology has had a negative impact on production of these crops.

Nutrition implications

Food grains, oilseeds, starchy foods, and sugar account for nearly 90 per cent of all proteins and calories in the Food Balance Sheets. Per capita needs of calories and proteins at the physiological level for the age, sex, and occupation structure of the Indian population works out to 2,660 kcal and 55.93 9 of proteins according to the most recent recommended allowances of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) (1981). The output of calories and proteins to meet these needs would have to be 2,660 kcal, and 55.93 grams, respectively, taking into account usage for seed, feed, and wastages all along the line. Average per capita output in 1978/79 of calories through the foods considered here is 2,446 kcal, which is 92 per cent of the calories needed. The protein output per capita from these commodities is 74.20 9, much larger than the average need of the population. On the whole the calorie output is marginally sufficient while protein production is more than adequate.

TABLE 13. Impact of New Technology on Per Capita Production of Food Grains and Their Nutrients in 1978/79

The nutritional implications of the structural imbalances noticed in the production of the protein and calorie mix from different crops, and the skewing evident in distribution, require careful consideration. The protein qualities of cereals and pulses are mutually complementary in terms of amino acid composition. The food system that produced proteins through cereals and pulses in the ratio 58:42 in 1950/51 did so, in the ratio 88:22 in 1978/79. Nutritionists have harboured a fear that structural changes of this order between cereals and pulses are likely to adversely affect the quality of proteins. This fear was examined in great detail by Raya and Asokan (1977), who found, on the aggregate, that but for reduction in lysine production by 5.8 per cent, the impact of the Green Revolution on the overall calorie and protein production was significant and positive in the six major wheat-growing areas. It was argued that in terms of the trade-off between the higher output of calories and proteins through raising high-yielding varieties, the small reduction in lysine production should not worry nutritionists. Similar analysis on an all-India basis shows that there is, in fact a 21.4 per cent increase in the aggregate total lysine production resulting from new technology. However, analysis of the trend in per capita production reveals a reduction of 11.12 per cent in lysine. Except for this reduction, recent agricultural technology has had a significant impact on the per capita production of food grains, calories, and proteins, as will be seen from table 13. The marginal declining trend in per capita production of proteins noted in the years 1949/50 to 1966/67, became corrected to a significantly positive trend during 1967/68 to 1978/79 following the HYVP, and this impact is important from the nutrition angle. The 4:1 ratio of cereal protein to pulse protein in 1978/79 is in keeping with the recent recommendations of the ICMR (1981). Because of a heavy tilt towards cereal production, the relative prices of pulses have gone up tremendously. Any price rise will obviously reduce the already very low consumption of pulses by the poor. If lower deciles of the population have to get the recommended 4:1 ratio of cereal and pulse proteins at the retail level, the ratio at the production level will have to be different, in keeping with the relative prices of cereals and pulses. Such a drastic reduction in the ratio is also not conducive to soil health. Nitrogen fixation of these leguminous crops helps in saving non-renewable energy for production (Swaminathan 1979). To achieve a healthy overall input-output of nutrients, the mix must be optimal with reference both to soil nutrients and human nutrition.

The proportion of protein and calorie output per capita derived from coarse grains like maize, jowar, and bajra to the total of calories and proteins from food grains was 30 per cent in 1950/54, and dropped to 22 per cent in 1978/79. As has been pointed out, the new technology has had a negative impact on coarse-grain production. Actual per capita production in 1978/79 was 130.11 g against an anticipated figure of 134.52 g. This unhealthy trend is likely to affect, especially, the poor in semi-arid areas where these crops are largely grown. Of the cultivated area, 75 per cent is rain-fed and 42 per cent of the crop output comes from these areas. Such areas have been plagued, for centuries, by periodic drought, floods, soil erosion, instability of production, drinking water scarcity, unemployment, and other forms of human suffering (Swaminathan 1973). Agriculture is a gamble over about 101 million hectares where most of the coarse grains are grown in competition with other commercial crops like groundnut and cotton. The consumption patterns of the poor reveal that the share of calories from coarse cereals, out of the calories from all cereals, was 42 per cent and the share of proteins, 50 per cent. These ratios varied from as low as 2 per cent in West Bengal to 90 per cent in Rajasthan, and 85 per cent in Gujarat and Maharashtra (Jodha 1973). As to nutrients, these grains are as good as rice and wheat. Ragi, rich in calcium, is good for hard-working peasants. The importance of these grains has been realized, and ICRISAT is developing new technologies to put them on a par with other fine grains. New technology alone is not adequate and it should have all the support of extension programmes, government pricing policy, procurement, storage, etc. which helped to introduce the new technology for rice and wheat. There is need for integrated programme planning and policy formulation in the promotion of different crops. A judicious crop mix will protect farmers from the risks attendant on vagaries of the monsoon as well as optimize the use of land and inputs. Analysis by state of the impact of new technology would aid integrated food and nutrition planning.

Conclusions

Agricultural development over the years, 1949/50 to 1978/79, helped in augmenting per capita calorie and protein production by 34 and 24 per cent. respectively. Wheat and rice output was the major contributor to these increases. Per capita production from wheat and rice touched the highest level of 1,320 and 32.62 9 of proteins in 1978/79. The contribution of coarse grains to augmenting calorie and protein production was very marginal, despite the introduction of improved strains. Per capita calorie and protein production through pulses has declined by 26 per cent over three decades, and as a result the ratio of cereal proteins to pulse proteins changed from 58:42 in 1950/51 to 88:22 in 1978/79. Though there has been an overall increase in calorie and protein output, the structural imbalances and their regional distribution need to be examined from a nutrition angle.

All the increases in calorie and protein output through wheat and rice cannot be considered as the impact of agricultural development. To measure this impact, the linear trend noted between 1949/50 to 1966/67 was used to estimate the likely output in 1978/79, if there had been no high yielding variety programme, and this output was compared with the actual output in 1978/79. Except for a reduction of 11.12 per cent in per capita lysine production, the impact of recent agricultural technology on nutrient production has been positive and significant. The most important impact was in correcting the marginal negative trend in per capita protein production that appeared to have occurred prior to the introduction of the high-yielding variety programme.

References

Alagh, Y.K. and P.S. Sharma. 1980. "Growth of Crop Production 1960/61 to 1978/79: Is It Decelerating ? " Indian Journal of Agriculture Economics, 35 (2): 104 118.

Bapna, S.L. 1976. "Production of Coarse Cereals in India: Past Performance and Future Prospects." Symposium on Production, Processing and Utilization of Maize. Sorghum, and Millets. CFTRI, Mysore, December 1976.

Directorate of Economics and Statistics. 1951-1980. Bulletin of Food Statistics. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi.

___. 1973. Potential and Actual Farm Yield: Results of National Demonstrations. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. New Delhi. May 1973.

ICMR. 1981. Recommended Dietary Intake for Indians. Indian Council of Medical Research, New Delhi.

ICRISAT. 1980. Yield Gap Analysis. Report of the Working Group. ICRISAT, Hyderabad, India.

Jodha, N.S. 1978. "Prospects for Coarse Grains." Economic and Political Weekly. Review of Agriculture: Prospects for Coarse Grains, 8 (52): 145-150.

Rajagopalan, S. 1978. "Nutritional Relevance of Coarse Grains and Millets in Tamilnadu." Paper presented at the National Institute of Nutrition, Hyderabad.

Rastogi, B.K. 1980. "Yield Gap Analysis." Report of the Workshop Group AICPRPDA. ICRISAT, Hyderabad/Patancheru.

Registrar General of India. 1971. Paper 19 of the 1971 Census.

Ryan, J.G. and M. Asokan. 1977. "Effect of the Green Revolution in Wheat on Production of Pulses and Nutrients in India." Occasional Paper 18, Economics Department, ICRISAT, Patancheru.

Singh, D. 1980. "Imbalances in Agricultural Growth." Presidential address to the Fortieth Agricultural Economics Conference. Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, Bombay.

Swaminathan, M.S. 1973. "Our Agriculture Future." Sardar Patel Memorial Lecture, All-India Radio, New Delhi.

___. 1979. "Emerging Agricultural Technology." In E. Ranade and Kendra Patrika Vivekananda, eds., The Challenge of Poverty in India. pp. 101 -112. Madras.

"Tamil Nadu Nutrition Project." Food Balance Sheet. Madras

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