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The impact of recent agricultural development on calorie and protein production

S. Rajagopalan Tamilnadu

Nutrition Project, Department of Food, Government of India

Abstract
Overview of agricultural development
Trends in agricultural production
Impact on calorie and protein production
Nutrition implications
Conclusions
References

Abstract

Agricultural development over the years 1949/50 to 1978/79 helped in augmenting per capita calorie and protein production by 34 and 24 per cent respectively. Wheat and rice output was the major contributor for this increase in calorie and protein production. Per capita calorie and protein production from wheat and rice touched the highest level of 1,320 kcal and 32.62 g of protein per day in 1978/79. The contribution of coarse grains in augmenting calorie and protein production was very marginal in spite of the introduction of improved strains. Per capita calorie and protein production through pulses declined by 26 per cent over the years, with the result that the ratio of cereal proteins to pulse proteins changed from 58:42 in 1950/51 to 88:22 in 1978/79. Because of the heavy tilt in cereal production, the relative prices of pulses have gone up tremendously. The impact of price rise on the consumption of pulses by the poor, which is already low. is obvious. The impact of new technology introduced for finer grains had a negative impact on coarse-grain production. This unhealthy trend is likely to affect the poor in semi-arid areas where these crops are largely grown. Seventy-five per cent of the cultivated area is rain-fed and 42 per cent of the crop output comes from these areas.

All the increases noticed in the output of calories and proteins through wheat and rice cannot be considered as the impact of agricultural development. To measure the impact of agricultural development. the linear trend noted between 1949/50 to 1966/67 was used to estimate the likely output M 1978/79 (if there is no high yielding variety programme) and compared this output with the actual output in 1978/79. But for reduction of 6.07 per cent in per capita lysine production, the impact of recent agricultural technology on nutrient production has been significant. The most important impact was correcting the marginal negative trend in the per capita protein production noted prior to the introduction of the high yielding variety programme. One other important impact of the improved technology was the stability of production relating to rice and wheat.

Overview of agricultural development

Agricultural development over the years has helped us feed the growing millions. In the first phase of development from independence to 1966/67, there was a close race between population growth and agricultural production. Progress in production was slow and took place largely through an increase in the cropped and irrigated area rather than through any appreciable increase in productivity. In this phase, the country was forced to import food grains during drought years. Earlier efforts to increase use of chemical fertilizers, the Grow-More-Food campaigns, and demonstrations on the cultivator's fields created an awareness, but did not motivate farmers to actually adopt the technology in a large way. From 1961 came the era of intensive agricultural development, during which a package of services, including credit and market support, were made available to farmers, and helped them adopt the technology and augment production. Though the programme was successful wherever introduced, the larger farming community was not motivated to adopt the improved technology, presumably, because the success was not perceptible or obvious. Later, agricultural technology from 1968 on, associated with the Green Revolution, embraces the cultivation of genetically improved strains of wheat, rice, sorghum, and maize under agronomic conditions that reveal their high yield. These high-yielding varieties and associated technology were accepted by the farming community because the yield was conspicuously higher and more economically produced than their own local varieties. Wheat production doubled in less than five years. The infrastructure and awareness created in the earlier decades served as a launching pad for this subsequent take-off.

Over the years, extension of irrigation facilities, greater use of fertilizers, adoption of high-yielding varieties, increase in the area under improved strains, and adoption of improved management practices, have strengthened the technological base of agriculture. Sustained progress in food-grain production is still needed to improve the nutritional standards of a growing population, and the improved varieties of cereals, pulses, oilseeds, etc. have the potential to do so. Demonstrations in the farmers' fields under the All-India Coordinated Project, the All-India Coordinated Agronomic Experiments and the National Demonstrations, have shown that yield rates could be increased, more than twofold, under irrigated conditions, the gap varying from crop to crop and state to state. Table 1 shows the yield gap under irrigated conditions, and table 2 under dryland agriculture. Tuber crops have also developed over the years. Critical analysis of the results of demonstrations indicate that the agricultural technology is neutral to the size of holdings (Swaminathan 1979). Production levels of these crops reflect the extent to which farmers have adopted the new technology.

TABLE 1 Yield Gaps in Different Crops under Irrigated Conditions

Source: Directorate of Economics and Statictics 1973

TABLE 2. Yield Gaps in Dryland Agriculture

Source: ICRISAT 1980

Trends in agricultural production

Food-grain production increased from 55 million tonnes during 1950/51 to 132 million tonnes in 1978/79 (figs. 1 and 2). The peak output in each five-year plan (table 3) shows the great impact of the new technology during the last decade. The average annual growth rate of production during the period was 2.66 per cent. Area expansion accounts for 0.84 per cent and yield for 1.52 per cent in the growth rate. In the last decade, from 1967/68 to 1978/79, the annual growth rate was 2.77 per cent. Not all this growth is the result of new technology, area expansion accounting for 0.44 per cent and yield for 1.84 per cent.

TABLE 3 Trends in Peak Year Production in Food Grains in India

Source: Directorate of Economics and Statistics 1980.

FIG. 1. Trends in Production of Food Grains (in million tonnes)

FIG. 2. Trends in Per Capita Production of Food Grains (in 100 grams)

Rice and wheat largely make up the increase. Out of 132 million tonnes of food grains in 1978/79. rice and wheat alone account for 89 million tonnes. The growth rates for wheat and rice were 6.02 and 2.64 per cent respectively for the period 1967/68 to 1978/79. Peak production of wheat and rice together was 52 million tonnes in 1964/65; after the spread of high-yielding varieties, this increased to 89 million tonnes, or by nearly 50 per cent. Besides growth, high-yielding varieties have lent stability to production. Even during severe drought in 1972/73, the output of 64 million tonnes was higher than the peak production of 52 million tonnes in 1964165, the highest ever obtained since independence. The same drought in 1965/66 resulted in a reduction of 10 million tonnes from the 1964/65 level (Swaminathan 1979).

Coarse grains like jowar, bajra, maize, and ragi have had differential growth rates during the last decade. During 1967/68 and 1978/79, jowar and ragi showed an annual growth rate of 2.07 and 3.98 per cent, while the growth rate for bajra was negligible, and that for maize and barley was negative. The ratio of fine grain to coarse grain was 63:37 in 1949/50, changing to 67:33 in 1964/65 and to 75:25 in 1978/79.

In regard to pulses, an important source of proteins, the introduction of improved seeds had little impact, and the output has oscillated between 9 and 12 million tonnes. During 1967/68 to 1978/79, the growth rate of production was 0.54 per cent, with an area expansion of 0.74 per cent and a negative figure for yield expansion.

Oilseed production increased from 5 million tonnes in 1950/51 to 9.9 million tonnes in 1975/76, thus registering an annual growth rate of 2.19 per cent, but in the decade ending 1978/79 the growth rate was just 1.6 per cent. Again the impact of improved seeds was not conspicuous.

Agricultural production must be viewed in the context of a growing population. Population increased from 359 million in 1950/51 to 641 million in 1978/79. An overview of the per capita production of cereals, pulses, oilseeds, etc. at the end of each plan period is given in table 4 (see TABLE 4. Per Capita Production of Important Agricultural Commodities in India (in grams)). Only the per capita production of wheat and rice has registered a 50 per cent increase, while all other commodities have either declined or, at best, kept pace. Per capita production of pulses declined conspicuously, from 70 9 per day in 1950/51 to 52 9 in 1978/79. For cassava and potatoes, per capita production increased from 30 to 76 9 during the period. The Indian diet consists largely of cereals and pulses, which account for 70 to 80 per cent of both calorie and protein intake. The proportion of pulses in total food-grain production was nearly 17 per cent in 1950/51, but declined to 9.2 per cent in 1978/79.

Uneven growth rates of individual crops has led to regional imbalances in rural prosperity, depending upon the crops grown (Singh 1980). Growth rates for various food grains and for population during 1960/61 to 1978/79 are given in table 5.

TABLE 5. Growth Rates of Food-grain Production and Population

1. Alagh and Sharma 1980
2. Registrar General of India 1971.

Impact on calorie and protein production

The above trends in agricultural production resulted in a considerable increase, between 1949/50 and the end of the Fifth Plan, in total calorie production (see FIG. 3. Trends' in Total Calorie Production from Food Grains (in 10 kcal)), a 34 per cent increase in per capita calorie production (see FIG. 4. Trends in Per Capita Calorie Production from Food Grains (in 1.000 kcal)), a large increase in total protein production (see FIG. 5. Trends in Protein Production from Food Grains (in million tonnes)), and a 24 per cent increase in per capita protein production (see FIG. 6. Trends in Per Capita Protein Production (9) from Food Grains (in 10 grams)). Tables 6 and 7 (see TABLE 6. Per Capita Calorie Production through Important Agricultural Commodities in India (as kcal) and TABLE 7 Per Capita Protein Production through Important Agricultural Commodities in India (in grams)) show an overview of per capita protein and calorie production crop-wise at the end of each five-year plan, and for the peak and drought years before and after the introduction of the high-yielding variety programmes (HYVP). Before the HYVP, per capita calorie production through these major foods touched a peak of 2,304 kcal in 1964/65, but after the HYVP it was 2,446 kcal in 1978/79, an increase of 6 per cent even over the peak year.

Production of calories and proteins through food grains made rapid strides during the last decade, largely due to the success of the HYVP for wheat and rice. Per capita levels of 1,320 kcal and 32,62 g of proteins registered in 1978/79 were the highest ever reached since independence. This represents a 28 per cent increase in calories and a 42 per cent increase in proteins over the 1964/65 peak-year production (1,031 kcal and 22.90 g proteins) prior to the HYVP.

Despite introduction of improved strains, per capita calorie and protein outputs through coarse grains remained stagnant. The maximum output of calories - 5.11 kcal per capita - from coarse grain occurred in 1967/68; the drought year 1972/73 was the lowest ever recorded - 367 kcal - and this was lower than the level noticed in the drought year 1965/66, namely 396 kcal per capita.

Pulses are an important source of proteins in the Indian dietary. Calorie and protein production per capita through pulses declined by 26 per cent over the last thirty years. the decline being very conspicuous after 1967/68. Even the drought year 1965/66 saw levels of 191 kcal and 13.43 g proteins per capita, which is higher than the level of 163 kcal and 11.43 g proteins in the drought year 1972/73.

Oilseeds are an important source of calories and proteins. Per capita production of calories and proteins through oilseeds touched a level of 221 kcal and 19.05 g respectively in 1965/66. In 1978/79, this output had declined by 20 per cent for both calories and proteins.

In the case of starchy foods, per capita output of calories, though small, registered a substantial increase, from 34 to 87 kcal per capita. In regard to sugar-cane, the contribution has fluctuated at about 210 to 250 kcal per capita.

Detailed analysis of Food Balance Sheets for Tamilnadu during the period 1966/67 to 1977/78 indicate similar trends. Table 8 (see TABLE 8. Per Capita Availability of Calories and Proteins in Tamilnadu) gives an overview of the increase in net per capita availability of calories and proteins after the introduction of high-yielding rice varieties (Rajagopalan 1978).

This analysis shows that, except for rice and wheat, the impact of recent agricultural development on calorie and protein production is not very significant. What has been gained through wheat and rice seems to have been lost through other crops. Even the increase in output, noted with regard to wheat and rice, is not necessarily due to the impact of agricultural technology. To measure the latter, the possible output during the last decade without the new technology must be surmised. This was estimated using trend lines fitted to the output data from 1949/50 to 1966/67. If the momentum gained during these 17 years had continued, the level of output of wheat and rice in 1978/79 would have been 60 million tonnes of wheat and rice can be ascribed to the impact of new technology. A similar exercise was attempted for coarse grains, pulses and total food grains with the results that are presented in table 9 (see TABLE 9. Impact of New Technology on Total Food Commodities Production in 1978/79 in India).

On the whole, a 29 per cent increase in output has arisen from new agricultural technology in the year 1978/79. Ryan and Asokan (1977) found that 15.5 per cent of the increase of food-grain production in 1974/75 was the result of high-yielding wheat varieties in the six major wheat-growing states.

In terms of total calories and protein production through food grains, increases of 29.31 and 19.61 per cent respectively are due to the impact of new agricultural technology. In the case of lysine, the increase in total production due to agricultural technology is 20 per cent. The impact of technology on tryptophan production was highest, namely 4.67 per cent. Similarly, table 10 (see TABLE 10. Impact of New Technology on Total Nutrient Production from Food Grains in 1978/79 in India), which gives an overview of the impact on individual nutrients, shows that there have been favourable impacts on other amino acids.

Analysis of the impact of new technology on per capita output, in terms of food grains and of nutrients, is given in tables 11 (see TABLE 11. Impact of New Technology on Per Capita Food Commodities Production in 1978/79) and 12 (see TABLE 12. Impact of New Technology on Per Capita Nutrient Production from Food Grains in 1978/79). The impact on total food grains was of the order of 17.73 per cent, being highest at 28.72 per cent on wheat and rice output per capita. The negative impact on coarse grain indicates a differential bias in the promotion and adoption of new technology. In terms of per capita nutrient output, a 6.93 per cent increase in calories and 15.25 per cent increase in proteins can be ascribed to the new technology. Except for lysine, which showed a decline of 6.07 per cent, the impact of new technology on other amino acids is good, and the 23.82 per cent increase in tryptophan is salutary.

Starchy foods, sugar-cane and oilseeds also exhibit some improvement in per capita production over the plan periods. Since no conscious or intensive efforts have been made to introduce high-yielding varieties in respect of these crops, as in the case of wheat and rice, little impact is perhaps to be expected here. On the other hand, awareness of new technology could prompt use of, say, additional fertilizer when growing any new strains available. Using the same projective techniques (table 9) it is found that actual production of starchy foods in 1978/79 was 17.73 million tonnes. This large increase of 69.8 per cent shows a highly significant effect of new technology on starchy foods, and the same conclusion follows from the per capita projections (table 11).

However, for sugar-cane and oilseeds, the outputs, both total and per capita, are less than the projected figures based on past trends (tables 9 and 11), showing that the new technology has had a negative impact on production of these crops.

Nutrition implications

Food grains, oilseeds, starchy foods, and sugar account for nearly 90 per cent of all proteins and calories in the Food Balance Sheets. Per capita needs of calories and proteins at the physiological level for the age, sex, and occupation structure of the Indian population works out to 2,660 kcal and 55.93 9 of proteins according to the most recent recommended allowances of the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) (1981). The output of calories and proteins to meet these needs would have to be 2,660 kcal, and 55.93 grams, respectively, taking into account usage for seed, feed, and wastages all along the line. Average per capita output in 1978/79 of calories through the foods considered here is 2,446 kcal, which is 92 per cent of the calories needed. The protein output per capita from these commodities is 74.20 9, much larger than the average need of the population. On the whole the calorie output is marginally sufficient while protein production is more than adequate.

The nutritional implications of the structural imbalances noticed in the production of the protein and calorie mix from different crops, and the skewing evident in distribution, require careful consideration. The protein qualities of cereals and pulses are mutually complementary in terms of amino acid composition. The food system that produced proteins through cereals and pulses in the ratio 58:42 in 1950/51 did so, in the ratio 88:22 in 1978/79. Nutritionists have harboured a fear that structural changes of this order between cereals and pulses are likely to adversely affect the quality of proteins. This fear was examined in great detail by Raya and Asokan (1977), who found, on the aggregate, that but for reduction in lysine production by 5.8 per cent, the impact of the Green Revolution on the overall calorie and protein production was significant and positive in the six major wheat-growing areas. It was argued that in terms of the trade-off between the higher output of calories and proteins through raising high-yielding varieties, the small reduction in lysine production should not worry nutritionists. Similar analysis on an all-India basis shows that there is, in fact a 21.4 per cent increase in the aggregate total lysine production resulting from new technology. However, analysis of the trend in per capita production reveals a reduction of 11.12 per cent in lysine. Except for this reduction, recent agricultural technology has had a significant impact on the per capita production of food grains, calories, and proteins, as will be seen from table 13 (see TABLE 13. Impact of New Technology on Per Capita Production of Food Grains and Their Nutrients in 1978/79). The marginal declining trend in per capita production of proteins noted in the years 1949/50 to 1966/67, became corrected to a significantly positive trend during 1967/68 to 1978/79 following the HYVP, and this impact is important from the nutrition angle. The 4:1 ratio of cereal protein to pulse protein in 1978/79 is in keeping with the recent recommendations of the ICMR (1981). Because of a heavy tilt towards cereal production, the relative prices of pulses have gone up tremendously. Any price rise will obviously reduce the already very low consumption of pulses by the poor. If lower deciles of the population have to get the recommended 4:1 ratio of cereal and pulse proteins at the retail level, the ratio at the production level will have to be different, in keeping with the relative prices of cereals and pulses. Such a drastic reduction in the ratio is also not conducive to soil health. Nitrogen fixation of these leguminous crops helps in saving non-renewable energy for production (Swaminathan 1979). To achieve a healthy overall input-output of nutrients, the mix must be optimal with reference both to soil nutrients and human nutrition.

The proportion of protein and calorie output per capita derived from coarse grains like maize, jowar, and bajra to the total of calories and proteins from food grains was 30 per cent in 1950/54, and dropped to 22 per cent in 1978/79. As has been pointed out, the new technology has had a negative impact on coarse-grain production. Actual per capita production in 1978/79 was 130.11 g against an anticipated figure of 134.52 g. This unhealthy trend is likely to affect, especially, the poor in semi-arid areas where these crops are largely grown. Of the cultivated area, 75 per cent is rain-fed and 42 per cent of the crop output comes from these areas. Such areas have been plagued, for centuries, by periodic drought, floods, soil erosion, instability of production, drinking water scarcity, unemployment, and other forms of human suffering (Swaminathan 1973). Agriculture is a gamble over about 101 million hectares where most of the coarse grains are grown in competition with other commercial crops like groundnut and cotton. The consumption patterns of the poor reveal that the share of calories from coarse cereals, out of the calories from all cereals, was 42 per cent and the share of proteins, 50 per cent. These ratios varied from as low as 2 per cent in West Bengal to 90 per cent in Rajasthan, and 85 per cent in Gujarat and Maharashtra (Jodha 1973). As to nutrients, these grains are as good as rice and wheat. Ragi, rich in calcium, is good for hard-working peasants. The importance of these grains has been realized, and ICRISAT is developing new technologies to put them on a par with other fine grains. New technology alone is not adequate and it should have all the support of extension programmes, government pricing policy, procurement, storage, etc. which helped to introduce the new technology for rice and wheat. There is need for integrated programme planning and policy formulation in the promotion of different crops. A judicious crop mix will protect farmers from the risks attendant on vagaries of the monsoon as well as optimize the use of land and inputs. Analysis by state of the impact of new technology would aid integrated food and nutrition planning.

Conclusions

Agricultural development over the years, 1949/50 to 1978/79, helped in augmenting per capita calorie and protein production by 34 and 24 per cent. respectively. Wheat and rice output was the major contributor to these increases. Per capita production from wheat and rice touched the highest level of 1,320 and 32.62 9 of proteins in 1978/79. The contribution of coarse grains to augmenting calorie and protein production was very marginal, despite the introduction of improved strains. Per capita calorie and protein production through pulses has declined by 26 per cent over three decades, and as a result the ratio of cereal proteins to pulse proteins changed from 58:42 in 1950/51 to 88:22 in 1978/79. Though there has been an overall increase in calorie and protein output, the structural imbalances and their regional distribution need to be examined from a nutrition angle.

All the increases in calorie and protein output through wheat and rice cannot be considered as the impact of agricultural development. To measure this impact, the linear trend noted between 1949/50 to 1966/67 was used to estimate the likely output in 1978/79, if there had been no high yielding variety programme, and this output was compared with the actual output in 1978/79. Except for a reduction of 11.12 per cent in per capita lysine production, the impact of recent agricultural technology on nutrient production has been positive and significant. The most important impact was in correcting the marginal negative trend in per capita protein production that appeared to have occurred prior to the introduction of the high-yielding variety programme.

References

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___. 1973. Potential and Actual Farm Yield: Results of National Demonstrations. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. New Delhi. May 1973.

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___. 1979. "Emerging Agricultural Technology." In E. Ranade and Kendra Patrika Vivekananda, eds., The Challenge of Poverty in India. pp. 101 -112. Madras.

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