I.  SETTING & BACKGROUND :

 

A.  Philippine Socio-Economic Profile

 

The Philippines, located in southeast Asia, is an archipelago of 7,107 islands. It is home to 76 million people and is one of the most populous countries in Asia and the world.[1] While most of the population still reside in the rural areas, urban migration has increased steadily. In 1996, total urban population constituted 55% of the total national population.  Metro Manila with its continued influx of rural migrants makes it a very densely populated place, more crowded that Metro Tokyo or Metro Paris according to studies. About 13% of the country’s population resides in Manila’s limited land area, representing a mere 0.2% of the country’s total land area. The country is divided geopolitically into 16 regions, Regions I-XIII, the National Capital Region (NCR), the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and the Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (ARMM).

 

From 1991 to 1996, economic indicators reflected national growth. GNP and GDP since 1991 have been on an upward trend. In 1996, GNP grew to 6.9% and GDP to 5.7%. Despite the financial crisis of 1997, GNP registered 5.8% and GDP 5.1%.

 

In 1998, according to a report by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) [2] GNP grew by 0.1 percent.  Meanwhile, gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.5 percent.  The strong growth (12.9% of net factor incomes from abroad, which accounted for the difference between GNP and GDP) enabled overall output to achieve positive growth. The GDP contraction in 1998 was caused by the 6.6% drop in agricultural production, and the decline of construction and construction-related manufacturing by 9.5 percent.  The El Niño caused negative agriculture outputs in the first three quarters.  Palay, as well as other cash crops like coconut and sugarcane all posted double-digit declines in the fourth quarter.

 

The country’s human development index (HDI) ranked 98^th  (out of 174 countries) according to UNDP’s World Development Report 1998, ranking lower than China, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. Poverty remains to be the country’s biggest problem with more than one-third of its people living below the poverty line. A disparity in the country’s human development has also been noted in the different regions’ HDI ratings, where Metro Manila ranks highest and the southernmost regions, the lowest. The figures indicate unequal growth from improvements in the economy over the last ten years. Per capita income figures also show disparity in wealth and in development distribution in the Philippines, with Metro Manila residents earning so much more than residents of other areas.[3]

 

Life expectancy increased from 66.5 to 68 years during the period 1992 to 1997. Basic health indicators have also improved. Communicable diseases such as acute respiratory infections showed a downward trend, similarly with the incidence of sanitation-related diseases associated with unsafe water supply and poor sanitation. Leprosy and malaria have ceased to be major public health problems.

 

B.  Administration

 

The Philippines has a democratic system of government. Three independent branches exercise equal powers– the executive, legislative and judiciary. From the executive branch, the president exercises the top leadership over the country. He is elected by the people every six years (without re-election) and is supported by a cabinet that he appoints. A bicameral congress consisting of 24 senators and 200 members of the House of Representatives composes the legislative branch. The power of the judiciary is vested in one Supreme Court, headed by a Chief Justice, and lower courts.

 

C.  Government Mechanisms dealing with Climate-Related Impacts[4]

1.       The Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC) was created on May 8, 1991. Its main purpose is to coordinate various climate change-related activities, propose climate change policies and prepare Philippine positions to the UNFCCC negotiations. It is composed of 15 government agencies and NGO representatives, namely:

 

·         Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR Secretary as Chair)

·         Department of Science and Technology (DOST Secretary as Co-Chair)

·         Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astonomical Services Administration

·         Department of Foreign Affairs

·         Environment Committees of the two houses of the Philippine Congress

·         Department of Energy

·         Department of Transportation and Communication

·         Department of Agriculture

·         National Economic and Development Authority

·         Philippine Network on Climate Change (NGOs)

 

Acting Secretariat to the Committee is the Environmental Management Bureau of the DENR. The IACCC has carried out the following activities:

a.       the first comprehensive study made on climate change in the Philippines (ADB-sponsored)

b.       Country Study Program on Climate Change (US Government-sponsored)

c.       Asia Least-Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) (UNDP-sponsored)

 

These initiatives have paved the way for various government agencies to conduct GHG emissions inventory by sources and sinks, developed GHG mitigation strategies, undertook climate change vulnerability and adaptation studies and drafted related policies. These were integrated in the National Action Plan on Climate Change.

 

2.       The National Disaster and Coordinating Council (NDCC) is the main coordinating agency tasked to prepare for and respond to disaster situations. NDCC emanates from the Office of Civil Defense of the Department of National Defense. NDCC regularly coordinates with seven government agencies and the body of local government units all over the country. The seven agencies are the:

 

·         Department of Science and Technology through the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)

·         Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD)

·         Philippine Information Agency (PIA)

·         Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)

·         Department of Agriculture (DA)

·         Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH)

 

In disaster-prone areas especially, NDCC has carried out disaster preparedness activities which include updating of contingency plans, conduct of public information and education drives, drills and exercises, organization of disaster coordinating councils and disaster coordinating groups, the training of NDCC members and volunteers, and reactivation of communication and warning back-up systems.

 

The Disaster Coordinating Councils (DCCs) are activated by the municipal and city governments at the occurrence of a natural calamity. The DCCs are tri-sectoral in nature and are tasked to prepare disaster mitigation plans and oversee their implementation. Industrial calamities are handled by the government through the DENR. Its program, the Awareness and Preparedness for Emergencies at the Local Level (APELL), supports the formation of partnerships among government, communities and industry to be able to prepare for and respond to industrial accidents.

 

In the conduct of its duties, the NDCC is guided by a Calamities and Disaster Preparedness Plan of the Philippines (see discussion in later section).

 

3.       The Inter-Agency Committee for Water Crisis Management was created in 1986 to address the need for a judicious and effective management of water resources all over the country. All water-related agencies of the government contribute and assist to the work of the Committee.

 

4.       The Technical Working Group on Cereals and Food Grains, composed of representatives from various government agencies, coordinates closely with the National Disaster and Coordinating Council in times of disaster. Based on information and other inputs from  NDCC, the Group makes its recommendation on the need for rice and corn importation,  including its timing of procurement and shipment.

 

5.       The Task Force on the El Niño was created by then President Fidel V. Ramos on September 1997. As an inter-agency body composed of 11 key government agencies, the Task Force was expected to (1) provide policy directions, (2) coordinate  the planning and implementation of programs to mitigate the negative effects, including an information/education/communication campaign about El Niño. The involved government agencies were also those responsible for acting in times of disaster, but including the Department of Health, Department of Transportation and Communications, Department of Interior and Local Government, National Irrigation Administration, and the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation. The Secretary of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources acted chairman of the Task Force, with the Secretary of the Department of Agriculture as co-chair.

 

At the local level, the inter-agency coordinative mechanism of the Task Force was replicated under the chairmanship of governors and mayors. The “crisis action groups” held regular meetings to discuss issues and to agree on action points. The Task Force implemented mitigating measures on three sectors expected to be heavily impacted by the El Niño: 1) agriculture, 2) domestic water supply,  and 3) the environment.

 

6.       The Presidential Task Force on Water Resources Development and Management  (PTFWRDM) was created in 1997 as an apex body to oversee and coordinate government policies and programs designed to respond to the pressing needs of the water sector. Its mandate was to plan, coordinate, prioritize and monitor implementation of all water-related programs and projects.

 

As an inter-agency body of 20 members, it was composed by many of the same officials and members of the Task Force on the El Niño but with additional government agencies responsible for water services and management, for example, the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System, Local Water Utilities Administration, and the Laguna Lake Development Authority. Unlike the Task Force on El Niño, this body also had private sector representatives as permanent members. These were the Philippine Association of Water Districts, Pollution Control Association of the Philippines, and the International Training Network. The DENR Secretary acted as Task Force Chair with the National Water Resources Board Chair and Task Force Vice-Chair.

 

In 1998, the Task Force on Water Resources Development and Management produced the integrated water resources database, one of the most complete GIS-based database in terms of water-related attributes as well as spatial data and information. Data at national and provincial levels were made available.

 

The Task Force has also introduced a draft bill proposing the creation of a Water Resources Authority of the Philippines (WRAP) as a central authority for the water bureaucracy and fill in the gaps where government has no regulatory or monitoring agencies. It will ensure, among others: increased effectiveness and efficiency of water resources management, sustainable development and use of the resource, and expanded private sector and civil society participation. It will take over the functions of the National Water Resources Board (NWRB) which will be abolished.

 

7.       The Department of Health as lead agency works with various other agencies to  undertake environmental health programs. Examples of these are the environmental sanitation program and the primary health care program. In the latter, water supply sanitation, excreta disposal and food sanitation are the areas of concern attended to by improved planning, programming, training and intensified health education throughout the country. The Primary Health Care program is a community-based approach to health development which engages people’s participation to ensure accessible, affordable and sustainable essential health care. It also undertakes provision of safe water supply, clearance and maintenance of water canals, compost-making, construction and use of water-sealed tilets, backyard gardening, herbal gardening and establishment of income generating projects.

 

8.       The Department of Social Welfare & Development, the Department of Agriculture through the National Food Authority, the National Nutrition Council and the Department of Interior and Local Government are responsible for coordinating and undertaking food subsidy programs (mainly rice) as needed. In such instances, the aim of the program is to provide  a safety net to cushion the negative impact on communities.

 

D.  The Climate-Related and other Natural Hazards affecting the Country

 

            The Philippine archipelago is affected by tropical cyclones, volcanic eruptions, El Niño and La Niña episodes, earthquakes, tsunamis/tsunamigenic earthquakes, droughts and floods.

 

            About 20 tropical cyclones visit the country’s area of responsibility every year. These are low atmospheric pressure areas of tropical origin characterized by strong winds and rains. There are four types, distinguished by windspeed: tropical depression (34 knots maximum), tropical storm (47 knts maximum), severe tropical storm (64 knts), typhoon (over 64 knts). In 1993, the country experienced an unusual occurrence of 32 tropical cyclones, 14 of which affected 7.47 million people and caused a total of P 19 billion in damages to agriculture and infrastructure.

 

            There are 21 active volcanoes in the Philippines, out of more than 200 quaternary volcanoes. There are four major volcanic belts traversing the different regions of the country. Pinatubo was, for over 400 years, a dormant volcano. In June 1991, it erupted several times, spewing ash as in an explosion type earthquake, and as high as 20 kilometers above the vent. Its 30,000 meter cauliflower-like column caused darkness in some areas. Pinatubo ash was observed as far as Hong Kong, Cambodia and Bangkok; its dust and gas emissions reached Europe in July. Pyroclastic flows and mud/lahar flows caused considerable damage in the Philippines. As of August, 1991, property loss was estimated at P9.8 billion; over 1 million people were directly affected.

 

Earthquakes resulting from the interactions of the Pacific and Eurasian plates and the movements along other faults frequently occur in the Philippines. Since 1960 to 1995, there have been 9,763 recorded earthquakes. The July 1990 earthquake was one of the strongest. It had two main shocks, affecting a combined area of 15,000 square kilometers. These affected 23 provinces and 13 cities. More than 1.5 million people were affected, more than 1,000 people died. Damages to infrastructure and agriculture were estimated at P 12.23 billion.

 

Tsunamigenic earthquakes have struck coastal areas of the country causing much damage. A major event happened in November, 1994 in Oriental Mindoro. The earthquake reached Intensity VII and was followed by a tsunami hitting approximately 40 kilometers of the northern and eastern shoreline of Mindoro island. Smaller nearby islands were hit by at least 6 meters of vertical run-up and more than 200 meters of horizontal run-up. Eighty three (83) people perished and 430 more were injured. Estimated cost of damage to property was PHP 0.5 million.

 

Droughts have caused significant damage to agriculture and forests, water resources, and human health. The most severe droughts have been associated with El Niño episodes. Thus, El Niño is considered a disastrous event for the country. The 1982 El Niño-related drought was one of the most severe, followed by the October 1989-March 1990 episode and the October 1993-May 1994. Agricultural losses for these two latter episodes amounted to billions of pesos, and affected more than 1.19 million people.

 

Floods occur frequently in the country because of the monsoons and the tropical storms, especially when the two occur simultaneously. Floods can develop after 12 to 24 hours (or longer) of heavy rains, although “flash floods” have become more and more of a problem especially in the cities. Flash floods can develop after only a few hours of rains. An estimated 49 floodings, occurring from 1990 to 1994, have caused grave damage to infrastructure, properties and agriculture. One of the most severe was the 1991 flooding that caused the Ormoc-Leyte tragedy where many villagers died as the waters swept their homes. And the other was the Mindanao flooding in 1993, affecting Regions 10 and 11 and over 7 million people who lost their houses and livelihood.

 

 

E.  The Level of Scientific Research in the Country relating to El Niño

 

Over the years, scientists had accumulated knowledge and data about ENSO phenomenon as it impacted on the country. Climatic indicators of ENSO were known such as: the delayed onset of the rainy season, weak monsoon activity, and isolated heavy downpours with short duration, weak tropical cyclone activity, and less number of tropical cyclones enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Rainfall and temperature fluctuations were recorded and studied, and could be projected. Areas of vulnerability were identified and classified according to low, moderate and high. In some of these areas, drought-resistant crops and appropriate farming technologies were developed and tested. Scientists could track the beginning and development of ENSO conditions in the country and forecast its probable end.

 

F.  Documentation of the Historical Interest in the Country (popular, political, media, etc.) in El Niño before the onset of the forecast and/or impact of the 1997-98 event

 

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) had a summary report on ten (10) drought events associated with El Niño from 1968 to 1995, including areas affected and degree of vulnerability. The media provided regular coverage of these drought events as well as floodings through various newspaper articles.