Executive Summary :

 

Setting

 

The Republic of Paraguay is located in South America in the La Plata River Basin. Its neighboring countries are Brazil, Bolivia, and Argentina. Paraguay can be divided into two well-defined natural regions, one from the Paraguay River to the east, encompassing 150,000 square miles of scalloped terrain and humid climate where almost 98% of the population of Paraguay is settled. The second region, covering 256,000 square miles is located to the west of the Paraguay River. It is called the Paraguayan Chaco and is composed of flat, dry terrain. It is sparsely populated.

 

The climate of Paraguay can be characterized by a warm spring and summer, temperate autumns, and cold, dry winters. Due to its being a Mediterranean country, its climate is typically continental. The annual mean temperature across the country varies from 21°C in the southeastern tip to 25°C in the northern Chaco near the Brazilian border. Generally, the climate becomes warmer as one moves toward the northwest. June, July, and August (the Southern Hemisphere winter) are the coldest months of the year; temperatures can be around 16°C with occasional frosts, which are more frequent in the southeast. December, January, and February (Southern Hemisphere summer) are the warmest months, with monthly mean temperatures rising to 28°C in the north. During these months, heat waves are frequent with many rainless days, but with high temperatures and humidity. Occasionally, temperatures over 40°C can be reached.

 

Rainfall has very irregular spatial and temporal distribution. The highest rainfall values are located in the southeast, with annual precipitation means ranging between 1,500 mm and 1,800 mm.  The lowest precipitation amounts are registered in the western zone (in the Chaco), where annual means range between 400 mm and 700 mm. Paraguay is a very rich country in available surface water. Rainfall in the central part of the country and in the east is able to maintain a dense network of rivers that flow all year. However, in the Chaco, and especially in its western tip, rivers and other water supplies are scarce.

 

The government of Paraguay is designed as a unitary representative and democratic Republic regulated by a national constitution proclaimed on 20 June 1992. It is composed of three branches of government: executive, legislative, and judicial. The executive power is exercised by a President of the Republic, who is elected by popular vote for a five-year period. The legislative power rests with the National Congress, which is composed of two Houses, one for Senators (45 members) and the other for Deputies (80 members). Members of both legislative Houses are elected for a five-year period. Judicial power is in the Supreme Court (9 members).

 

The economy of Paraguay is predominantly dependent on agriculture, which generates more than 25% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while industry accounts for about 20%, and services almost 50%.

 

An important fact to be noted is the significant deterioration in agricultural productivity observed during the last few decades, basically due to important changes in land use. Extensive areas of forest were eliminated, producing severe losses from an economic and environmental point of view. Enormous amounts of biomass were burned and fertile soils degraded by erosion and salinization. On the other hand, construction of big hydroelectric complexes like Itaipú and Yacyretá caused permanent flooding of significant amounts of high-quality productive land. All these environmental impacts have brought about significant societal consequences by forcing important migratory movements of the Paraguayan population to big cities in South America, mainly to Buenos Aires, Argentina.

 

In 1991, the Paraguayan population was about 5,405,500 inhabitants, 54% of whom lived in urban areas and 46% in rural areas.  The population is basically composed of mestees (Spanish and Guarani Indian intermarriage) and immigrants from different origins (Europeans, Arabs, Japanese, Chinese, etc.). These facts define a multiethnic and multicultural country with two official languages, Spanish and Guarani. There is religious freedom, although the most dominant religion in the country is Roman Apostolic Catholicism.

 

Historical Meteorological Hazards

 

Basically, almost all natural disasters in Paraguay are related to climate. Because of its geographical characteristics, other natural phenomena such as earthquakes, landslides, or volcanic eruptions are unknown. Only climate extremes produce events with such a magnitude or severity that they could be considered disasters.

 

Heavy rainfall events during some seasons in different regions over the High La Plata River Basin cause increasing streamflows in the Paraná and Paraguay Rivers, flooding almost all the riverside cities and small towns. This causes significant negative impacts, not only in the flooded areas, but also to the infrastructure in the country and, therefore, its economic and development opportunities.

 

Long-lasting droughts have occurred in Paraguay also. They are mainly associated with La Niña events. The most recent major drought was related to the 1999-2000 La Niña. This drought produced severe losses in the economy of Paraguay, especially in the agricultural sector with consequent societal negative impacts in rural areas.

 

Heat waves related to high levels of humidity without rain are very common in Paraguay, which mainly affect human health, agriculture, and the raising of cattle. One example is the heat wave of December 1997, when nighttime temperatures reached values above 28°C and daily maximum temperatures remained above 37°C with very high air humidity. Frosts occur in autumn and winter (between May and September, but mainly in July and August) when outbreaks of polar air masses affect the South American continent, bringing significant losses in agriculture.

 

Severe thunderstorms are the most frequent natural hazard in the country. They are observed any season of the year, but their frequency is considerably increased during the warm season, producing heavy rains, strong winds, and hail. The Alto Paraná area is under the influence of frequent tornado tracks, which produce severe damage in the area. However, studies about this phenomenon and early warning systems are virtually absent.

Level of Scientific Research in Paraguay Relating to El Niño

 

In a general sense, scientific research in Paraguay has not had the relevance that it should have had, because there are no national plans for supporting the few existing researchers who are spread out in various institutions, mainly governmental. There are other high priorities determined by government, and scientific research is not considered one of them. As a result of these conditions, scientific research related to El Niño in Paraguay is very scarce, mostly nonexistent. Only in the past few years and especially after the 1997-98 event has some interest about El Niño appeared in scientific groups, mostly in universities. This will be a difficult task in the near future because of the lack of funds and a general trend of diminishing economic support for universities in Paraguay.

 

Before the 1997-98 event, little interest about El Niño existed in Paraguay, in spite of the devastating effects of the 1982-83 El Niño. It is very common among the Paraguayan population to have a fatalistic feeling about natural hazards that they are unavoidable. In the political sector, there was no concern about how to cope with future El Niño events, and the media only occasionally published articles about El Niño. Much of the information released by foreign or international news agencies about El Niño was not published by the Paraguayan media. They did not consider this subject as relevant enough to merit publication.

 

The 1997-98 El Niño Event

 

Institutions that first received information about the onset of an El Niño event were the media, the universities, and the National Meteorological Service. This information came from the Internet and other international media and was mainly focused on the general aspect of the extensive warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Other relevant information obtained by the National Meteorological Service came from NOAA in the United States. Regarding the event and its expected impacts, the government’s Directorate of Meteorology and Hydrology was continuously required by the media to corroborate all the information received. This institution and the media played an important role in warning the population about an unusually long-lasting rainy season accompanied by significant flooding.

 

The media’s printed and broadcast coverage of the 1997-98 El Niño and its impacts was acceptable. They transmitted a considerable amount of information related to the event. However, the media in Paraguay are not knowledgeable about scientific matters, and they do not have the capacity to understand much of the scientific information. This led, in some cases, to misinterpretations of the actual facts.

 

Teleconnections

 

El Niño events bring significant anomalies in the atmospheric circulation patterns over southeastern South America, which includes the northern half of Argentina, the southern tip of Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Anomalous wind systems induce anomalous fluxes of water vapor and heat over the region. In general terms, in Paraguay positive rainfall anomalies attributed to El Niño are observed in the second half of the spring and in the autumn with a wet summer (October to May), especially in the eastern region and the lower Chaco. These anomalies are responsible for severe floods in the Paraguay and the Paraná river basins, affecting important riverside cities such as Asunción (the country’s capital), Bahia Negra, Concepción, Alberdi, Pilar, and Encarnación. Temperature is also modified by El Niño-induced anomalies. Winter is anomalously warmer as a consequence of high humidity and atmospheric pressure is lower than normal.

 

The severe floods caused by the 1997-98 El Niño event were not as significant as those that occurred during the 1982-83 event. However, the 1997-98 El Niño left the people with the general feeling of having experienced the strongest El Niño of the twentieth century. The main reason for this conclusion can be found in the type of rainfall that accompanied this event. Thunderstorms were probably more intense than on other occasions, to such an extent that the 1997-98 El Niño in Paraguay was named as the “El Niño of the Big Rains.” Rain and consequent flooding were the primary cause for many of the major environmental and societal damages in Paraguay.

 

Rains during this event reached very high values in October, November, and December 1997, as well as in February, March, and April of 1998. In the south, during October-November, rains were above 1,200 mm, almost 260% of the historical average. In the same manner, rain over the eastern region surpassed 1,000 mm. During the March-April period, heavier rains were concentrated over the southeast, with amounts near 1,500 mm, nearly 400% of the historical average for this period.

 

Although El Niño is usually associated in Paraguay with high rainfall amounts (a climatological fact), it could also be associated with short-lived intense thunderstorms as well. It can be particularly noted that during the 1997-98 El Niño, the highest number of severe storms ever registered in Paraguay occurred.

 

The biggest impact in Paraguay was the intense rainfall over almost the whole country. Due to this meteorological condition, many areas of the country were flooded by main rivers and their tributaries.

 

The country’s infrastructure was severely damaged by floods and strong winds associated with storms during the 1997-98 El Niño. Damage by strong winds was registered, mainly for bridges, roads, and buildings, accounting for over US$48 million. El Niño impacts were particularly severe over the central region, due to heavy rains in Asunción and neighboring cities. From October 1997 to May 1998, rains in this area accounted for more than 190% of the historical average, exceeding rainfall amounts during the 1982-83 El Niño, which was 165% of the historical average. Electric power supply was very much affected by rains and winds as well, when a high number of power lines and towers were completely destroyed.

 

Impacts on ecosystems were significant, mainly in the Paraguay River basin and the Chaco, where extensive areas, never before flooded, remained under water for a long time, causing a high level of mortality among trees and other vegetation. Thousands of wild animals died in the flooded forest.

 

Fishing was severely impacted by floods related to the 1997-98 El Niño, producing a considerable decline in production, which strongly affected food supplies to the population and caused a disruption in exports. Agriculture was a major economic sector hit by El Niño. The agricultural campaign for 1997-98 suffered serious damage caused by heavy rains, strong winds, and hail. Crops were adversely affected from seeding to harvest, resulting in very low productivity. Loss estimates for eight major Paraguayan crops were over US$23 million.

 

With regard to human health, the number of cases of diarrhea and dysentery increased considerably because of poor sanitary conditions in affected areas and in temporary shelters. The government had to construct in a very short time more than 84 refugee camps, where sanitary conditions were far from adequate. Floods and severe weather related to El Niño brought a number of social problems such as losses in habitat, losses in jobs, insecurity, vulnerability to disease, etc. This is very common whenever a population has to be concentrated in shelters or relocated in other “safe” areas.

 

During the 1997-98 El Niño, 49 people died in Paraguay from different causes attributed to its impacts. About 7,000 houses were damaged, and 19,089 families were negatively affected.

 

Responses

 

One of the main responses from the government of Paraguay for facing El Niño’s impacts was the creation of a special institution called “Comite de Emergencia Nacional” (CEN), which had the responsibility to coordinate emergency responses to disasters. CEN was created by a decree from the President who placed it under the umbrella of the Ministry of the Interior. Its main task was defined as follows: To prevent and to cope with the effect of disasters created by natural agents and other sources, as well as to promote and coordinate actions in public institutions, municipalities, and the private sector for the prevention, mitigation, response, and rehabilitation of those communities affected by the emergency. CEN has an executive director, a general coordinator, and 22 people for operational support.

 

Since October 1997, the government has received financial support from international institutes such as the UN Disaster and Assessment Coordination Team for developing different vulnerability studies, the creation of a Contingency Plan, and a proposal for a national system for disaster prevention. In spite of this effort, the magnitude of El Niño’s impacts surpassed the actual funding available and, as a result, many responses could not be carried out. CEN was then forced to request additional financial support from other institutions such as the World Bank (US$16 million) and the Inter-American Development Bank (US$35 million).

 

CEN has been an instrument for the establishment of shelters and camps through the country for the affected population. However, government policy was supposed to reduce the time that people had to live in these emergency facilities. This was not a big problem in Asunción, where affected people remained near their jobs or had created new sources of income in the informal sector. The government had offered to move people to other urban areas in the city with more facilities available, but some people rejected this offer in order to remain near their sources of income. However, in the more isolated areas where people lost all their possessions and means for income, the situation became much more critical.

 

Conclusion

 

Climate anomalies related to El Niño are better understood now. Society’s confidence in climate forecasting is growing and, consequently, climate impacts could be better estimated. The application of climate information to societal needs is improving. During the El Niño of 1997-98, meetings between climate experts and users of climate information increased and, hence, more interaction and mutual learning took place. Now, institutions working on climate predictions and climate applications have more opportunities for closer contacts with users. However, many aspects of climate prediction have to be improved in order to appreciably increase confidence in forecasts. We also must work hard to improve our information flow and teach people how to avoid misinterpretations of climate prediction.

 

Now there is a basic structure to cope with emergencies. The creation of CEN gave the country an institution capable of taking quick action in emergencies and capable of coordinating with other national and international prevention institutions. However, important obstacles still remain for better responses. Funds are lacking, and almost all institutions in Paraguay are unable to react to an emergency as soon as their assistance is needed.

 

The 1997-98 El Niño taught Paraguay a big lesson. In September 1997, a prediction emphasized the development of a strong event. However, different sectors of the society spent too much time discussing and assessing the veracity of the El Niño information and information about its impact on Paraguay. A very short time later, many Paraguayans began to suffer calamities brought on by El Niño and, consequently, our society began to suffer its direct impacts. Our reaction was very delayed and reality overrode our potential actions. Capacity building for the development of El Niño- (and La Niña-) related contingency plans has to be considered if we wish to cope effectively with climate-related natural hazards. Considerably more human and economic resources are needed, if we are to reduce El Niño’s impacts.

 

Lessons Learned

 

El Niño events have a significant impact in Paraguay, producing heavy rains from spring to autumn with damaging floods in the Paraná and the Paraguay rivers, among other effects. More specifically, the El Niño of 1997-98 caused unprecedented floods and economic losses in almost all sectors of the country.  In fact, the El Niño event caused a decrease in the living standards of the Paraguayan population. Currently, national preparedness programs are undergoing a significant improvement in increasing the capacity of the country to face natural hazards.  However, there still remain important limitations to fast and efficient response (especially funding limitations). There is no societal consciousness about hazards and the ways to face them.  Some sectors of the population visualize hazards as “forces” impossible to predict or minimize. Scientific research has not held an important place in the societal structure of the country.  There is no national program to support sciences in any field, and research about El Niño is almost nonexistent. There is still a lack of confidence about the reliability of predictions about ENSO’s extremes and their impacts.

 

At the present time, El Niño can be predicted with enough lead time so that preventive and mitigative measures can be taken in response to disasters.  Also, there is enough early warning to provide for proactive planning as opposed to reactive response.  Preventive measures can save money for the government and people.

 

Because of this reliable teleconnection between El Niño and climatic variability in Paraguay, the authorities should consider El Niño as a direct influence on natural disasters in Paraguay.  In this sense, it is very important to provide the economic and human resources to cope with this natural disaster, as well as to develop an appropriate contingency plan.  El Niño information and climate predictions should be considered by the authorities for planning and decision making as a strategic factor to be included in social, economic, and environmental development plans.

 

There are recurrent and very well known El Niño impacts in Paraguay.  Heavy rains and floods take place because of this phenomenon, generating enormous economic losses and considerable environmental and social damage. This happened during the El Niño events of 1982-83, 1991-92, 1997-98, to mention just the latest ones.

 

There are well-known sectors of Paraguayan society that are most vulnerable to El Niño’s effects.  Among the most important are those living in slums or marginal areas, such as in the rivers’ flood plains, especially along the Paraguayan River and its tributaries.  Major cities are built along this river: Bahia Negra, Concepción, Asunción, Alberdi, and Pilar. Along the Paraná River is the city of Encarnación, among others.  Thousands of families live in these areas. Many of them had to be relocated to temporary settlements without proper sanitary conditions. It was difficult to avoid the problems of outbreaks of infectious diseases and illnesses, as well as other problems associated with these emergency settlements. The rural populations, the majority of which are farmers, became isolated by the heavy rains and floods and by the collapse of bridges and of other transportation and communication infrastructures.

 

The media (TV, radio, newspapers, magazines, etc.) played a fundamental role in the dissemination of information about the impacts that El Niño events could generate.  The media should be used to better inform the population about threats. The media in Paraguay are not yet specialized in such topics. For their part, scientists have a responsibility to educate the media and decision makers at various levels.

 

The expansion of the country’s agricultural frontier over the last few decades has been based on irrational deforestation and it has notably affected the regional hydrological balance. This increased the vulnerability of society when confronted by an El Niño event, especially El Niño-related floods and the deterioration of the environment (loss of agricultural land, soil erosion, etc.).

 

The 1997-98 El Niño and the disasters it spawned exposed a major lesson. In September 1997, when the scientific community announced the development of a strong El Niño event, the lack of reliability or credibility among policy makers in the forecast meant that decision makers did not take the necessary steps to prepare for El Niño’s likely impacts. Society had to suffer the consequences.