The Setting :

 

Socioeconomic Setting

 

Ethiopia is a developing African country located between 3°N and 15°N, and 33°E and 48°E[1]. Ethiopia is estimated to be about 1.2 million square kilometers, two thirds of which is mountainous, lying between 1700-3000 meters above sea level. The western and eastern highlands rise to 4000 meters with the Rift Valley dissecting them. More than 60 percent of Ethiopians live in these highlands. Drought, deforestation and soil erosion are the leading environmental problems in the region. At the turn of the 20^th century, 40 percent of Ethiopia’s land surface was covered with dense forests. This has been reduced to only 4 percent. Land degradation in Ethiopia is aggravated because of high population density and the traditional techniques of cultivation.

 

Ethiopia is called the water tower of Africa. It is home to many rivers such as the Blue Nile and Wabe Shebelle, making it potentially suitable for irrigated agriculture. The FAO estimates that Ethiopia has the potential to irrigate 3.5 million hectares of land (FAO/GIEWS, 12/19/1997).

 

At the end of the El Niño in the middle of 1998, a war started between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The war began on May 12, at a time when Ethiopians were coping with the adverse impacts of El Niño. The conflict was an added constraint on the El Niño-related responses by the government and the people. About 450,000 Ethiopians who live in the border areas occupied by Eritrea were displaced and became dependent on food aid. They lost their animals, seeds, and harvests. Other farmers in the border areas could not plant, because of the lack of security and occasional shelling. Thousands of Ethiopian farmers were mobilized to defend against the Eritrean threat, and the farms of those who joined the army were cultivated with the help of those who remained in the villages. In July 1998, Eritrea confiscated 45,000 tons of U.S. grain that was in an Eritrean port en route to Ethiopia. It is believed that Eritrea confiscated more than US$300 million worth of goods when the conflict erupted. Ethiopia was forced to import food and other items through Djibouti in order to avoid the Eritrean ports because of the conflict.

 

Ethiopia is home to more than 60 million people, making it the second most populous country in sub-Saharan Africa. Until the 1950s, Ethiopia was considered self-sufficient in food production. However, food production declined by 1.2 per-cent annually in the period between 1951-92, which led to food insecurity (DPPC 1998a, 5).

 

Drought, civil war, overpopulation and unwise government policies contributed to the decline of food security in Ethiopia. The socialist economic policies of the Military Government (1974-1991), such as land nationalization, forced collectivization and forced resettlement, undermined the productivity of Ethiopian agriculture. In the 1970s and 1980s, the subsistence agriculture was unable to produce a surplus for the market or to support itself, which caused food insecurity in Ethiopia.

 

The Ethiopian economy is highly dominated by agriculture, with a GDP composed of 50 percent agriculture, 40 percent services and 10 percent industry (FAO 12/19/1997). Agriculture contributes 88 percent of exports and 88 percent of employment. Coffee, for example, contributes 60 percent of foreign earnings. Ethiopian agriculture is dominated by (1) the subsistence peasant sector, which contributes 95 percent of the production of cereals, pulses and oil seeds; (2) the pastoral sector with a nomadic form of production; (3) agro-pastorals and small-scale modern commercial farming, which is in its nascent stage of development. Ethiopia produces the largest livestock population in Africa, and the FAO estimated that it ranked 9^th in the world (FAO 12/19/1997). However, it is characterized by low productivity. The dominant and identified food supply systems in Ethiopia are “crop dependent, market dependent, and livestock dependent, with some groups of people depending on more than one of these systems” (Wolde Giorgis 1987, 519).

 

Ethiopia has a lot of potential for agricultural development.  This potential could be realized with an increase in agricultural productivity through irrigation, use of fertilizers, improved seeds, and access to markets, infrastructure and improvement in agricultural techniques and skills. An increase in productivity would also require a solution to environmental problems, such as rainfall variability and the degradation and fragmentation of land. A long-term solution to the problem of food security in Ethiopia would require the transformation of the peasant mode of production with its increasingly diminishing and fragmenting farm plots, which is at the mercy of seasonal rainfall that is highly erratic and variable (Gonfa 1996).

 

Seasons and Climate Zones

 

Understanding the nature of the Ethiopian climate is important for any food security policy in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) divides Ethiopia into four climatic zones based on the pattern of rainfall (NMSA 1996, 5). These are:

(1)     The two-season type: this includes the western half of Ethiopia, which is divided into distinct wet and dry seasons.

(2)     Bi-two season type: the south and southeast of Ethiopia is characterized by double wet seasons that occur between March-May and September-November with two dry seasons in between (Workineh, 1987 bibliog., Haile 1986 quoted by NMSA 1996). 

(3)     The undefined season mostly has sporadic rainfall between July and February without any

      defined season. It occurs in the dry northern part of the Ethiopian Rift Valley.

(4)     The three-season type: these areas include central and southwestern Ethiopia.  The average

annual rainfall in the highlands of Ethiopia is above 1000 mm a year and it rises to 2000mm      and 3000 mm in the wet southwestern parts of Ethiopia (NMSA 1996, Babu 1999a, 63).

 

The three seasons in Ethiopia are classified according to the amount and timing of rainfall. They are designated as Kiremt, (June-September), Bega (October-January), and  belg  (February-May) (NMSA 1989, 5). These seasons determine the seasonal agricultural activities, such as land preparation, planting, weeding and harvesting by farmers.

 

 

Kiremt (June-September)

 

Kiremt is the main rainy season in Ethiopia. There are various regional and global weather systems that affect the Kiremt season. These systems include the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the Maskaran High Pressure in the Southern Indian Ocean, the Helena High Pressure Zone in the Atlantic, the Congo air Boundary, the Monsoon depression and Monsoon trough, the Monsoon Clusters and the Tropical Easterly Jet (Kassahun 1999). The ITCZ moves north and south in the tropics following the change of seasons.   The ITCZ reaches southern Ethiopia at the beginning of the belg season and moves northward bringing rainfall with it. At the end of August, the ITCZ begins to return southward ending the Kiremt precipitation that corresponds with the maturation of crops. Most Ethiopian rainfall, with the exception of the south and southeastern parts of the country, is caused by the ITCZ (Kassahun 1999).

 

The High Pressures created in the Makarin and St. Helena areas are important causes for the moisture-carrying winds to go to Ethiopia and drop their precipitation in the highlands. The weakening of these high pressures reduces the amount of rainfall in Ethiopia. The Congo Air Boundary in the Congo rain forest is a meeting place for the moisture-carrying winds from the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. This boundary pulls the low air pressure from the north and east into Ethiopia. It also pulls the winds originating from the low pressure in the South Atlantic and provides them with moisture to be dumped in southwestern Ethiopia (ibid.). Occasionally, the monsoon clusters also provide rainfall to the eastern part of Ethiopia (ibid.). Finally, the Tropical Easterly Jet, which moves 13 kilometers above sea level over Ethiopia, strengthens the ITCZ, which is the main system that creates rainfall over Ethiopia during the Kiremt season (June-September). The absence of this strong wind could negatively affect the amount and distribution of rainfall (ibid). The MeherMeher crops in the highlands of Ethiopia depend on the Kiremt rainfall.

 

The intensity and fluctuation of the rain-producing systems during the Kiremt season influence the amount and distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Babu 1999a, 65). The lack of definition of ITCZ, which is the main rain producing system, causes deficient rainfall over Ethiopia (ibid.). Following Jackson, Abate argues that not all rainfall in Ethiopia is caused by the movement of the ITCZ; other “dry” and “wet” periods in Ethiopia are influenced by the atmospheric disturbances that create rainfall away from the ITCZ (Jackson 1979 cited by Abate 1984, 18-19).

 

Kiremt rainfall is very important in Ethiopia. Most of the food is planted during this season. Drought during Kiremt may lead to food insecurity and starvation. With the exception of south and southeastern Ethiopia, most parts of the country receive 60 percent-90 percent of their rainfall during the Kiremt season (Babu 1999a, 65).

 

Bega (October-January)

 

The Bega season occurs between October-January. Bega is the dry, windy and sunny season in most highlands of Ethiopia. The causes of this dry season are the Sahara and Siberian High Pressures that send dry and cold winds to Ethiopia during the northern winter (Kassahun 1999). During the Bega, most of highland Ethiopia is sunny during the day and cold during the night and morning, which includes frost in December and January. Farmers harvest their Meher crops during this dry period. However, there are some areas of lowland Ethiopia, such as the Ogaden, that get some rainfall during this period.

 

A low pressure air that moves from Western to Eastern Europe, occasionally, passes over Ethiopia and interacts with warm and humid air from the tropics creating unseasonable rainfall in Ethiopia during the Bega (Kassahun 1999). Moreover, the tropical disturbances on the Arabian Sea might move to Ethiopia and drop some rainfall during the Bega season, especially in the pastoral areas of the country  (ibid.). The pastoral areas of south and southeastern Ethiopia experience a bi-modal rainfall regime and receive their rainfall between October-January and February-May.

 

The precipitation during the Bega season (October –January) is generally very low in most of the grain-producing parts of Ethiopia. However, the regions in southern, southwestern and southeastern Ethiopia receive rainfall associated with the southward retreat of the ITCZ (Babu 1999a, 64). By the end of November, dry Arabian and Saharan anticyclones replace the southward shifting ITCZ and bring warm-dry weather to Ethiopia (ibid.). At times this new air circulation meets with tropical air masses and brings untimely and unwanted rainfall to Ethiopia. The wind direction also reverses from wet westerlies to dry easterlies that bring dry and cold wind to Ethiopia (ibid.). Rainfall in Ethiopia decreases from SW to NE.

 

Belg (February-May)

 

The belg season is also known as the small rain period and occurs between February-May. The belg rains begin when the Saharan and Siberian High Pressures are weakened and various atmospheric activities occur around the Horn of Africa. Low-pressure air related to the Mediterranean Sea moves and interacts with the tropical moisture and may bring precipitation to the region. The high pressure in the Arabian Desert also pushes that low-pressure air from south Arabian Sea into mid- and southeast Ethiopia, which in turn, creates the belg rains. The beginning of the belg rain is also the period when the ITCZ begins to reach south and southwest Ethiopia in its south-north movement (Kassahun 1999).  The belg rains fail when these diverse weather phenomena are not realized. For example, the creation of strong low pressure and cyclones in the southern Indian Ocean reduces the amount and distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (ibid.).

 

Between 5 and 10 percent of crops in Ethiopia are produced during the belg season. In some areas, the belg rainfall may produce up-to fifty per-cent of local food. The small rains also contribute to increased pasture for domestic and wild animals. Normal belg rainfall adds moisture to the soil, easing land preparation for the Kiremt planting. During the dry season, the mass of dry air comes from the northeast. (Abate 1984, 13)

 

The belg season is influenced by the tropical surface air masses in the Indian and Arabian anti-cyclones and the Central African cyclones south of Ethiopia (Haile 1987).  At the beginning of March, the ITCZ arrives in southwestern Ethiopia to move northward which brings rainfall (Babu 1999a, 65).   Belg rainfall is brought by the penetration of extra-tropical troughs that replace the Arabian anticyclones (Babu 1999a, 65).  The belg rains normally end in the middle of May and dry weather persists (for a month) until the middle of June when the Kiremt wet season begins.  Babu (1999a) argues that the belg rains may sometimes merge with the Kiremt rainy season without the one-month break.  He states, “Merging belg and Kiremt rains was observed in 1972, 1977, 1982, 1987 and 1993, which were all El Niño years. So the presence or absence of El-Nino could be used as a predictor to anticipate belg or Kiremt rainfall” (Babu 1999a, 65).

 

Microclimates in Ethiopia

 

In addition to the ITCZ, local factors also affect rainfall in Ethiopia. Spatial variations caused by altitude create rainfall variations in Ethiopia leading to the existence of various microclimates[2]. Altitude is an important factor in creating various climatic zones in Ethiopia. The four types of climate zones in Ethiopia are the dega, weina-dega, kola and bereha. The dega is cool and usually receives adequate rainfall. The weina dega is temperate and supports most Ethiopian crops. The kola is hot and includes the lowland areas. The bereha is the desert type area in the peripheral parts of the country in which nomadism is the main economic activity.

 

Evolution of the Early Warning System

 

The practice of delivering early warning for climate hazards did not exist in Ethiopia until the mid-1970s³. There was no early warning system in the 1973-74 drought, and the capacity and commitments of the government to disaster related impacts were absent. More than 200,000 people and animals died as a result of the drought (Wolde Giorgis 1987, 519).  In 1976, the military government established the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC). The RRC was mandated to identify famine conditions and provide the information to the Ethiopian government and donors. The RRC was a pioneer in the area of famine early warning in Ethiopia. However, it was later discredited because the military government used it in making food a political weapon during the civil war. There was information and early warning about the drought and famine of 1984-85, but mistaken priorities of the government, the civil war and the politicization of relief led to the death of more than one million Ethiopians (Wolde Giorgis 1987, 519).  The RRC was also a leading participant in the infamous resettlement program.

 

Since the overthrow of the military government in 1991, there have been deliberate sets of actions by the government to create institutions and capacities to adequately prevent climate-related hazards. The core foundations were institutional and material preparedness on the part of the government to adequately respond to disasters. Institutionally, the DPPC was strengthened with powers to strictly evaluate the various relief and development NGOs. The government introduced two important documents, The National Policy for Disaster Prevention Management (NPDPM) and General Guidelines for the Implementation of the National Policies on Disaster Prevention and Management (NPDMP) in 1993 and 1995, respectively (DPPC 1998a, 6, EG 1995a).

 

The National Policy for Disaster Prevention and Management stressed that early warning and preparedness were key elements to respond to climate-related hazards. An emergency food security reserve was put forward as an important component of preparedness. In 1995, the RRC was renamed the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC) to reflect the new philosophy (EG 1995b).  The National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Committee (NDPPC) was established under the Prime Minister’s office to implement the National Disaster Policy (DPPC 1998a, 11). In 1995, a technical Task Force that included donors, UN agencies, NGOs, and government agencies was established to implement the National Policy.

 

The NDPPC deals with climate-related impacts at the national level and is chaired by the Prime Minister. Its members include the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Water Resources and Development, the Ministry of Economic Development and Cooperation, the Ministry of Trade and Industry, and the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Commission (DPPC), the National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) and the Ethiopian Mapping Agency.  The NDPPC assesses the status of weather, agricultural operations, and crop prospects and subsequently recommends possible responses. It appraises the likely onset of climate-related impacts and issues directives to minimize the threat. The DPPC is the secretariat of the NDPPC.

 

The General Guidelines for the Implementation of the National Policies on Disaster Prevention and Management (1995) provides guidelines for reducing the impacts of drought. In addition to the provision of relief in times of acute food shortages, the Guidelines contain various interventions to avert disasters. These interventions include improvements to the productivity of the drought vulnerable lands and improving resilience of farmers to drought (Guidelines 1995, 49). These interventions are related to crop systems and varieties, soil and moisture conservation, contingency agricultural plans, provision of seeds, and policies for livestock preservation. The Guideline recommends the preservation of drought resistant seed varieties and emphasis is put on low-cost, non-cash crop production, strengthening the agricultural extension system and establishment of a favorable cropping system (Guidelines 1995, 49). It recommends the conservation and retention of soil moisture and the establishment of small-scale irrigation, construction of wells, training farmers to reduce run-off and exploit ground water and encourage forestation (Guidelines 1995, 49). The Guidelines recommended contingency agricultural plans to reduce the impacts of drought on food production. These plans include the use of irrigation, water preservation, (?) exploitation of ground water and drought resistant agronomic practices, such as cultivation of alternative drought resistant crops and the preservation of farm moisture. It recommends the re-planting of crops during drought, the distribution of seeds, and the use of agronomic practices to reduce evapo-transpiration, such as weeding, reducing foliage and skipping inter-cropping. Fodder production, pasture development, water supply, veterinary services, fodder and water distribution, controlled grazing, organized migration, mobile abattoirs, fodder production and cattle camps are recommended to reduce the impact of drought in the pastoral areas (Guidelines 1995, 53).

 

The DPPC has established a crisis management group consisting of nodal officers of government ministries to assist in disaster management (DPPC 1998a, 10). Relevant Ministries and agencies have a designated technical person as a member of the National Committee for Early Warning (NCEW) under the Federal DPPC.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 1: Reporting System of the Ethiopian EWS

     

          Wereda                                     Zone                         Region                           Federal

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                             Legend

 

 

 

 

Main information flow

 

                                Information flow to decision-makers

 

                                Other information flow

 

                               

Main decision-making bodies

 

 

 

 

There are “Early warning committees” at various levels of government i.e. the Federal DPPC, Regional Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Bureaus (RDPPBs), Zonal Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Departments (ZDPPDs) and the Wereda Early Warning Committee. The NCEW depends on these committees to collect and analyze information and data pertaining to weather, crop, food, market trends, commodity prices, livestock conditions, water and pasture, and food and nutritional conditions.

 

Since the change of government in 1991, there has been a genuine attempt by the central government to decentralize and improve community participation in disaster response. The 1995 Proclamation has made the regional DPPBs autonomous because of the federal system of government (EG, 95). For example, the Wereda Early Warning Committees play important roles in the dissemination and collection of early warning information. The DPPC’s baseline socio-economic data is collected at this level (Hadera 2000).  They also report any climate-related impacts to the government.

 

Various government actions were taken to strengthen the national preparedness for disaster.  In 1992, the Ethiopian Transitional Government established the Emergency Food Security Reserve Administration (EFSRA) to improve its capacity of disaster response (DPPC 1998a 6-15). The government constructed food stock silos at various strategic locations so that food could reach the market or the needy people on a short notice. Ethiopia’s food reserve capacity was raised from 33,000 MT in 1991 to 307,000MT in 1997 (ibid.). The government also established the National Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Fund (NDPPF) to cover the financial costs that may arise when climate-related disasters strike. Donors, the UN, NGOs, and Regional Presidents are the board members of the NDPPF. Shortage of inputs, such as seeds and oxen are important impediments for farmers’ responses during drought. Access to oxen and seeds determine the decision of farmers to replant when variability of rainfall destroys crops. These inputs are also important for post-drought rehabilitation by farmers. Agricultural extension services were used to provide inputs.

 

The Ministry of Agriculture, which is mandated to oversee the seed banks, plays an important role in the distribution of inputs to farmers. The sector ministries and the regional states implement relief-based development projects, such as “food for work “or” employment generating schemes. The Livestock Preservation Program was also created to encourage farmers to focus on fodder production and controlled grazing.

 

 Thus, in the 1990s, the Ethiopian government has been successful in drafting and in implementing food security policies. In 1996-97, the various policies of the Ethiopian government achieved their goal. There was a bumper harvest of about 11 million MT for the first time in Ethiopian history. However, the 1997-98 El Niño induced erratic rainfall, which reversed the trend on increasing food production.

 

Climate-related and other hazards in Ethiopia

 

 There are many hazards, climate-related and otherwise, in Ethiopia. The most common disasters are droughts, floods, fires[3], epidemics, pests and earthquakes. Drought is the leading climate-related hazard in the country that particularly affects the food security of the people. Creeping environmental problems, such as soil erosion and deforestation, are widespread and increase the impact of climate-related hazards (Addis Zemen Sene 17, 1989 E.C). There is the problem of land mines due to the civil war and the current conflict with Eritrea that erupted on May 12, 1998.

 

Level of scientific research related to El Niño

 

Preliminary research is carried out at the National Meteorological Services Agency (NMSA) about the relationship between Ethiopian weather and El Niño. An understanding of El Niño as a cause of climate-related hazards in Ethiopia before the 1997-98 event was limited to the NMSA and the DPPC. The NMSA began to develop an interest in the long-range weather forecast and El Niño after the 1983-84 drought that killed about one million people (Kassahun 2000). El Niño forecasts have been an important aspect of Ethiopia’s response to climate-related hazards since 1987 (Glantz 1996). According to Kassahun, NMSA’s serious scientists conducted a discussion regarding the possibility of El Niño’s effect on Ethiopian weather after reading the work of Marc Cane about the 1982-83 El Niño.

 

In 1987, a NMSA report stated that ENSO events negatively affect the rain-producing components of the Ethiopian weather. The report also stated that the impact of ENSO on Ethiopian weather is indisputable (NMSA 1987). After the severity of the 1983-84 drought, the NMSA was “compelled to prepare and issue a seasonal forecast of belg (small rain period) and Kiremt (big rain period) rains of 1987, well in advance” (Haile 1987a, 54). According to Haile, there is no theoretically sound methodology for the NMSA to carry out its long-range weather forecast.  The NMSA used the analogue method to forecast the anomalous seasonal rainfall. Forecasting by analogy is used in an attempt to know the future in situations where the “cases are analogous to ways that societies might respond to environmental change” (Jamiesson 1988, 79).  The government adequately responded to avert the 1987-88 famine and was awarded the Sasakawa-UNDRO award (Bekele 1997, 112).

 

The National Meteorological Services Agency has been using the technique of forecasting by analogy in its use of El Niño as a drought early warning.  The NMSA agency identifies the current ENSO event and compares it with similar past ENSO events for which the impact on Ethiopia is known. The idea is to forecast that the impact on Ethiopia of the coming ENSO event would not be different from the past event. For example, the 1997-98 El Niño was compared by NMSA with past El Niños, and it was decided that it resembled the 1972-73 El Niño. NMSA then concluded that the impact of the El Niño on the amount and distribution of rainfall in 1997 would be similar to that of 1972-73. Similarly, the impact of the current La Niña on the rainfall amount and distribution of rainfall in the Kiremt 2000 is similar to the analogue year of the 1980 La Niña. The use of forecasting by analogy to reduce the impact of the anomalous weather has been very important in Ethiopia’s drought early warning. NMSA forecasters also take the SST of the Indian and Atlantic oceans into account. Then NMSA forecasts precipitation by classifying rainfall into normal (75 percent-125 percent of long term mean rainfall), below normal (less than 75 percent of long-term mean rainfall) and above normal (more than 125 percent of long term mean rainfall) (Babu 1999b, 68).

 

Historical interest in El Niño before the 1997-98 Impact

 

There was no mention of El Niño at the popular or media level before the 1997-98 period, with one exception. Following the 1982-83 El Niño that led to the 1984 drought in Ethiopia, the NMSA initiated the application of El Niño information as an early warning for the 1987 drought. According to Kassahun, NMSA experts for the first time explained the concept of El Niño to the public on TV on August 5, 1987. Information from the DPPC also reveals that ENSO information was being incorporated into the early warning system since then (Teshome 1997).