RESPONSES :
Government
reports or statements issued before and after the impacts of the 1997-98 El
Niño appeared and responses after the event
The impact of the 1997-98 El Niño event was not felt
in Vietnam until autumn 1997. As noted earlier, Vietnam authorities had been
given an official document from the U.S Government on the appearance of El Niño
in April 1997. The government document "Document On El Niño and its
Impacts" was released on 28 October 1997 (Identification Number: 5418/KTN)
from the Prime Minister's Office and instructed the responsible authorities—the
Ministry of Science, Technology and the Environment and the Hydro-Meteorology Service—to prepare a report on El Niño and La Niña.
Though this acted to raise official awareness of the El Niño phenomenon (and
climate-related hazards in general), the official response to El Niño-related
hazards during the 1997-98 period was carried out through the existing disaster
management structure rather than through any new initiatives. The first popular ENSO document was released by the Hydro-Meteorology
Service and printed by the Science and Technology Publishing House in the year
2000 as a result of the 1997-98 event (Nguyen
Duc Ngu, 2000).
Reports
of El Niño-related impacts during the 1997-98 event were prepared as part of
the normal mechanism of hazard reporting but no formal report on the effect of
the 1997-98 El Niño on Vietnam has been published as yet. The impact of the
event was reported in climate summaries for the period, and assessments will
appear as part of the expanded research effort on the topic in general (e.g., Pham Duc Thi, 1998).
A
major response to this El Niño has been in an expansion of the national
research effort on the topic of El Niño and La Niña. Continual efforts are made
to improve Vietnam’s disaster management system, and the impacts during 1997-98
provided an additional motivation for this process, but not for the development
of El Niño-specific measures. Public awareness of the threats posed by El Niño
is certainly higher than before the 1997-98 event, although whether this has
been translated into a more effective response to, say, cyclone impacts is not
yet possible to determine. It is reasonable to conclude that climate-related
hazards experienced during the 1997-98 event, whether or not they can be
directly attributed to El Niño such as the impact of Typhoon Linda, have
resulted in a greater level of international assistance for disaster management
(but this would likely have occurred regardless of El Niño).
National
research in Vietnam on climate-related hazards and El Niño
Vietnam
is a country affected by many kinds of hazards of which climate-related ones
play an important role. Therefore, the Hydro-Meteorology Service of the
Socialist Republic of Vietnam has been implementing many plans and projects
related to the issue of climate-related hazards. Some examples follow:
Under
the National Program in 1985‑1990 code 42A commissioned by
Hydro-Meteorology Service, Vietnam has carried out some studies on the impacts
of tropical storms in Vietnam such as: 42A.03.04, studies on structure and
methodologies of typhoon forecasting implemented by National Center for
Meteorology and Hydrology Forecast; and, 42A.03.05: studies on zoning of strong
and stormy winds serving the construction sector carried out by Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology Research. Pests are considered as a disaster related
closely to the environmental conditions, especially climatic conditions. Therefore,
studies on pests have also been implemented in the National Program
commissioned by the Pesticide Prevention Agency, in the Ministry of Agriculture
and Rural Development.
In
the National Program for 1991‑95 on water resources, studies were done on
flooding caused by heavy rain. These
were also studies of flood forecasting in the rivers through the Ministry of
Water Resources, by the University of Water Resources, and the Institute of
Water Resources Planning and Management, among others.
In
the National Environment Program for 1995‑2000 two drought studies for
North Central and South Central Vietnam were carried out by Institution of
Hydro‑Meteorology and Institute of Geography, and the National Center for
Natural Science and Technology.
In
recent years, the Hydro-Meteorology Service has been commissioned by the
Government to carry out the methodology to forecast storms and floods in
Vietnam. Drought and solutions for drought in the coastal zone of the Central
have also been an imperative need. Thus, the Institute has carried out a study
on drought assessment in the area from Ha Tinh to Binh Thuan Province for Water
Resources in cooperation with the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology.
As
far as El Niño itself is concerned, early work was published by Hoang Minh Hien
and Nguyen Huu Ninh (1988, 1990). The
1997-98 event stimulated a large amount of scientific research in Vietnam as
evident in the numerous publications that appeared in the late 1990s (Bui Minh Tang, 1998a,b, 1999; Dang Tran
Duy, 1998, 1999; Hoang Minh Hien, 1998; Le Nguyen Tuong (1998); Nguyen Doan
Tho, 1998; Nguyen Viet Pho, 1998; Nguyen Viet Thi, 1998; Pham Duc Thi, 1998,
1999; Le Dinh Quang, 1999; Tran Viet Lien, 1999).
After
1997, assessments and forecasts of the impacts of ENSO have become an important
need for national management authorities in Vietnam. Therefore, in the period
of 1999‑2000, the Government organized an independent study on ENSO with
the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology as the agency executing the study.
Recently, there have been several sectoral studies on climatic disasters and
ENSO in Vietnam, commissioned by the Hydro-Meteorology Service, the Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development, and the National Center for Natural Science
and Technology.
In
addition to these scientific studies, considerable efforts have been made to
improve disaster management and this involves a research component. For example, the 1998 UNDP Red
River Basin Flood Management Programme supports ongoing disaster mitigation efforts
in Vietnam by developing an international quality flood forecasting system
suitable for all rivers in Vietnam, commissioned and tested as a pilot project
for the Red River basin. In financial terms, it is probably the case with the
greatest investment in research in this kind of development-oriented study
backed by international funding and frequently undertaken by foreign experts
rather than Vietnamese scientists.
National
plans to respond to disasters
Vietnam
has a comprehensive national system that has evolved over centuries for
responding to the threat of storms, floods and other natural hazards. The
system has been described as one of the most well-developed institutional,
political and social structures in the world for mitigating water disasters
(DMU web site, http://www.undp.org.vn/dmu/dm-in-vietnam/en/institutional_framework.htm).
The account of the system in this section and following sections is drawn from
Kelly et al. (in press) and is based on the literature, as cited, and
interviews with key informants.
Alongside
the extensive dyke system, the main elements of the disaster management system
have, historically, been monitoring, mobilization of the population, and the
stockpiling of materials. The system continues to evolve. During the 1990s, the
Strategy and Action Plan for Mitigating
Water Disasters (MWR, UNDP, UNDHA, 1994, 1995) defined the current
framework for emergency response. The 1994 Strategy adopted a three-pronged
approach based on forecasting and warning systems, preparedness and mitigation,
and emergency relief, emphasizing non-structural solutions on a short- and
medium-term basis.
As
far as institutional roles are concerned, monitoring
and forecasting is the task of the Hydro-Meteorological Service (HMS), with
the primary responsibility in the main offices at the national level in Hanoi
and secondary responsibility at the regional and provincial level. The HMS is
responsible for monitoring and forecasting tropical cyclone characteristics
(position, movement, severity, likely landfall, and so on) and for issuing
warnings to the general public and the relevant authorities. This work is
undertaken at the national level, in Hanoi, by the National Center for
Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHF), and at the regional (city and
provincial) level by the local HMS offices. The NCHF is divided into two
divisions or branches, responsible for meteorological forecasting and
hydrological forecasting. Tropical storm forecasting is the responsibility of
the meteorological division, although the hydrological division may become
involved in the event of, for example, river flooding. With a total staff of
around 150, the NCHF is further divided into sectors responsible for, for
example, administration (including issuing warnings to the general public),
communications (issuing warnings to regional HMS offices), research and
development (information and methods), satellites and computing (data provision
and analysis), and short-, medium- and long-term forecasting.
Coordination
is the task of the Committees for Flood, Storm Control and Disaster
Preparedness (CFSC), which exist at the national, city and provincial, and
district level and within relevant ministries. Each commune (village) also has
a CFSC Officer. These committees are responsible for pre-storm season
preparations (including maintenance of the physical defences and resource
allocation), implementation instructions as a storm approaches, coordination of
relief at the relevant level in the aftermath of a storm, collation of impact
information, and post-season assessment of effectiveness.
The
Central CFSC was established in May 1990, succeeding the Central Committee for
Dyke Maintenance. There is a permanent Secretariat for the Central CFSC with a
small staff, run by the Department of Dyke Management and Flood Control (DDMFC)
under the Ministry for Agriculture and Rural Development. The Central CFSC is
primarily responsible for the emergency response to floods and storms. It is
chaired at vice-minister level and includes representatives from a wide range
of relevant ministries as well as the Chair of the HMS. Longer-term planning is
the responsibility of the National Committee for the International Decade of
Natural Disaster Reduction (NCIDNDR), set up in January 1991, also chaired by
the MWR. The Secretariat of the NCIDNHR is also run by the DDMFCSP with the
MWR. Funding for the activities of these organizations and the measures they
instigate comes from three sources: government, local communities and
international assistance. The Flood and Storm Preparedness Fund, contributed by
city and provincial resources, supplements central government funding and
totalled 7.8 billion VND as of September 1994.
In
1994, the Disaster Management Unit (DMU), with UNDP support, was established to
assist the work of the CCFSC and the NCIDNDR. The role of the DMU is to serve
as a reference center for information exchange (through the DMU Information
System, based on a computer communications network) and to work to secure data
and voice communication with disaster-affected areas and establish a National
Disaster Management Training Team for provincial, district and local leaders.
Implementation
of disaster prevention and preparedness activities is the responsibility of all
government departments and organizations at all levels, as relevant, as well as
the general public. Given the spatial scale of the maximum impact of an
individual storm (a few hundred kilometers) and the nature of the Vietnamese
administrative system, primary responsibility for implementation, i.e., the
actual defensive measures, has to be taken at the district and commune level.
Figure 46 shows the flow of information, and responsibility, from institutions
at the national level to the commune level. The need for coordination, between
ministries and between administrative levels, has driven the formulation of
this complex chain of communication, although it has been criticized in that
the transfer of forecast information, for example, between agencies and
administrative levels can, at times, be unacceptably slow (MWR/UNDP/UNHDA,
1994).
Figure 46. Flow of information, and
responsibility, from institutions at the national level to the commune level
Source: Climate Research Center, Institute of
Meteorology and Hydrology
Is
El Niño explicitly considered to be a disaster in Vietnam?
While
El Niño and La Niña are officially recognized as affecting the occurrence of
many forms of natural hazard in Vietnam and therefore are to be incorporated in
the planning process, they are not dealt with as disasters in their own right.
International
research on El Niño and Vietnam
There
has been little international research that focuses directly on the issue of El Niño impacts on Vietnam, although many
papers provide information on the regional scale that is relevant to Vietnam (for example, Allan, 1991).
Collaborative work by Vietnamese scientists in the context of international
initiatives has resulted in some research specific to Vietnam.
For
example, in 1990-91, within the framework of a project on the assessment of
climate‑related impacts sponsored by the United Nations Environment
Program (UNEP), there was an initial assessment about ENSO and its impacts on
some socioeconomic factors in Vietnam by Dr. Nguyen Huu Ninh, Dr. Hoang Minh
Hien and Dr. Tran Viet Lien. At a related international conference on climate
change and sea level rise held in Hanoi in 1991, there were several papers on
ENSO and forecasting presented by international experts. In 1995, a regional
conference on ENSO and extreme phenomena sponsored by NCAR and UNEP was
organized in Ho Chi Minh City. At both
of these conferences, several papers and scientific reports on ENSO and its
impacts on the weather, climate and socio‑economic factors of the region,
including Vietnam, were presented.
In
1999, in Hanoi, within the International Hydrology Program, a conference on
ENSO, flood and drought in the 1990s in Southeast Asia and Pacific took place.
There were several international and domestic experts presenting papers on the
relationship among ENSO, flood, storm and drought. Recently, in Hanoi, as mentioned earlier, an international
conference on the impact of El Niño and La Niña in Southeast Asia was organized
by Center for Environment Research, Education and Development and sponsored by
Asia‑Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN). A regional
overview of ENSO impacts, including effects on Vietnam, as well as papers on
sectoral impacts in Vietnam were presented at this meeting.
Two
chapters authored by Vietnamese scientists and an international collaborator
covering the impact of ENSO on Vietnam will be published (Kelly et al., in press).
(Also see, ADPC Report, 2000).