The Fiji Setting :

Background to the Study

 

In  1997-98 the most intense El Niño of the 20^th century occurred. It prompted the UNFIP to support 16 country case studies to document El Niño’s societal impacts. These countries were affected in a variety of ways by the 1997-98 event. The overriding objective of these case studies has been to determine how countries affected by either of ENSO’s extremes can be better assisted through improved use of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts.  Fiji is very grateful to have been selected, along with Papua New Guinea (PNG), as the two island countries to represent the Pacific island countries (PICs). In September 1999 UNEP concluded a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreement with the South Pacific Applied GeoScience Commission (SOPAC) to undertake the Fiji case study. Immediately following this, the Fiji government endorsed the undertaking of the Fiji case study project. This endorsement facilitated the access of our research team to government information and the release of civil servants to be Team members.

The Early El Niño

 

El Niño, in its first usage by the fishermen along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, referred to the times when warm ocean current periodically appeared, typically around Christmas time, and flowed southward along the coast of Ecuador and Northern Peru. It is a Spanish word meaning ‘the Christ child’ or ‘the boy child’ describing these warm ocean intervals which may last several months and extend into May and June in very severe cases. The southward flowing current is in reverse direction to the much cooler, normal northward flowing current.  Generally fish were less abundant so fishermen used these breaks to repair equipment and spend more time with their families[1] . It was noted that heavy rainstorms and floods often accompanied this phenomena causing acute disruptions to their normal lives and livelihoods. Today some argue that following El Niño, when cold currents revert back to normal, there is upwelling that brings up fish nutrients, resulting in bumper fish catches in the season that follows.

El Niño and Teleconnections Today

 

Science today links El Niño to the heating up of the sea’s surface waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean.  The heating progresses eastward, forcing dislocations in atmospheric circulation and convection above the eastward shifting warm surface water. Concurrent major shifts are induced with the ocean currents flowing along the equator from the West to the East Pacific coast and southward down the Southern American coast. The combined effects of these anomalies cause remarkable and variable changes in climate pattern, in the first instance, for all countries draining into the Pacific. With increasing scientific research over the last three decades, direct links or teleconnections were also established with climate changes in regions that drain into the Indian and Atlantic Oceans

 

Fiji is located within the transition zone of the Southern Oscillation. This is a reason why distinct impacts are realized only with high intensity El Niños. 

 

Geophysical, Social and Political Setting

 

Fiji is a small island nation in the South Pacific. In common with other small Pacific Island states it receives much support from regional inter-governmental organizations.

 

Regional Management Support

 

The Pacific Ocean is the single biggest feature of the planet. It is more than 70,000,000 square miles and more than 10,000 miles from North to South and East to West and is currently home to 21 developing PICs. The PIC leaders have, over the years, established regional organizations that bond them together to serve the direct interests of the countries. The regional organizations provide applied management support in many sectors and are prominent in providing direct educational, scientific, technical, policies and good governance support. Evolving regional cooperation has grown to be one of the strongest and most resilient management features among PICs. The Forum Council of Government Leaders directs the programmes of all regional organizations.

 

Figure 1: Map of the Fiji Group of Islands

 

The South Pacific Applied GeoScience Commission (SOPAC) is one such independent, inter-governmental technical regional organization. One of its mandates is to improve and strengthen national capacities of PICs to better manage natural disasters. Disaster management structures are being established in the PICs, similar to that described here for Fiji.  For technical hazard information on climate and environmental affairs, the responsibility is placed with the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Recently, the WMO established a regional office in the region co-located with SPREP. This is bringing a better WMO focus on PIC national meteorological needs. There are three other regional organizations that respectively look at tourism, fisheries and shipping.

Geo-Physical Features

 

The Fiji group of islands lies between 15-18 degrees South and 175 degree East to 177 degree West. It consists of over 300 islands of which about 97 are inhabited. There are small atoll limestone islands, which are very vulnerable to drought and storm surges. The bigger islands are volcanic in origin and have well-established gullies and river systems. They rise to peaks of 1000 meters and have clearly demarcated wet and dry zones.

 

The total landmass is about 18,272 km².  There are two main islands of Viti Levu (10.4K km²) and Vanua Levu (5.5K km²) that comprise 88% of the total landmass. The terrain for Fiji’s main island is very rugged with less than 18% of the land arable as the interior is rugged, deeply serrated and steep. The prevailing Southeast trade winds bring rains to the heavily rainforested eastern zones, leaving dry the western leeward zone. With very heavy and high intensity rainfall, soil erosion remains a very big and constant concern. The cumulative effects of erosion over the years have resulted in raised riverbeds leading to increasing incidences of flooding.

  Socio-Economic Features

 

Fiji is an independent island nation having a two-house parliament.  The Lower House was elected every five years. Participation in the Senate (or Upper House) was done by nominations. The population of Fiji is 775,077 at the 1996 census.[2] In May 2000, the Prime Minister and members of the Congress were held hostage in a coup attempt that lasted a few months.  Eventually, the military ended the coup and tool control of the government.

 

There are two predominant races, Fijians and Indians. The Indians are traditionally successful traders, professionals, business entrepreneurs and sugarcane farmers, whereas Fijians have historically opted for the service industries and subsistence farming. Fijians own about 85% of the land and derive subsistence livelihood from it. Of the total population of around 775,000 over 75% live on the main island of Viti Levu and 18% in Vanua Levu. The remaining 7% are distributed over 95 other islands in a scatter that makes it difficult for emergency and development planning.

 

Fiji has historically been heavily reliant on export revenue earnings from its sugar sales with a little bit of support from mining and other agricultural produce. With a large populace reliant on subsistence farming, agriculture is fundamental to the livelihood of about three-quarters of Fiji’s population. This heavy reliance on agriculture, and its attendant high risk to natural disasters (Fiji is particularly vulnerable in the cyclone season), has prompted a policy shift for the past two decades in which the government actively promoted tourism and the garment industry.

 

Suburban development in Fiji has taken place along the coastal belt and flood plains. In past cyclones and flood disasters the sectors that had been hit hardest were housing, water supplies, infrastructure and agriculture. Drought has also adversely impacted water resources and agriculture. Understanding the social and economic impacts of drought is important, as Fiji relies very heavily on agriculture and tourism for employment and the generation of foreign revenue. It has been estimated that natural disasters reduced by up to 50% the economic growth rate of Fiji[3] (Benson, 1996).

 

Sugarcane comprises the major agriculture activity and has been the economic backbone for the country. It is planted as rain-fed production on the dry leeward side for higher sugar quality content. This, however, makes it very vulnerable to El Niño-induced droughts and their associated community social problems as the industry is very farm-labor intensive with a majority of Fijians living on income bordering on a poverty threshold for Fiji.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2: Agriculture Share of the National GDP (Source: Development Strategy for Fiji 1997; Ministry of National Planning).

 

 

The contribution of other sectors to GDP is presented in Table 1.

 

Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by Sector 1993-1998

  (constant 1989 factor cost, F$million)

Reference: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assessment and Mitigation Study (Lightfoot, 1999).

 

Political Setting

 

The beginning period of the study, in late 1998, coincided with high political campaigning in the Fiji Islands culminating in the 1999 May general election that saw a new government voted in. There was strong racial undercurrents and tension, as the campaigns were on racial divides propelled by a lack of public understanding of the new Constitution pushed through during the height of the 1997 drought. The new government was just a year in office, when armed civilians in May 2000 stormed Parliament in staging a coup. To date Fiji is under martial law with the Constitution abrogated and rebels in the Parliament Complex held the former Prime Minister and colleagues hostage until their release on July 12^th. These events created challenges to the study team to stay focused on the task at hand, particularly in the latter period coinciding with compiling the final report when tension was high in the country.

Natural Hazards in Fiji

Fiji generally has a wet and hot season from November to April and a cold and dry season from May to October.  When El Niño forms in the late and early part of the year, dry conditions are accentuated. Similarly La Nina can cause heavier rains and floods in the wet season. Cyclones are most likely to occur between October to May, known as the cyclone season. Other climate-related hazards affecting Fiji include floods, drought, storm surges, landslides and forest fires. 

 

Disaster Management Structure in Fiji

 

The Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to a number of natural disasters as indicated in the Table 2.

 

Table 2: Pacific island countries -Estimated level of vulnerability to specific natural hazards [South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme “Final Report for International Decade For Natural Disaster Reduction” -Dr.Jack Rynn) ]

 

Country	Population	Land Area Km2	Tropical Cyclone	Storm Surge	Flood Coast	Flood River	Earthquake	Drought	Tsunami	Landslide	Volcano
Cook Islands	19,500	240	H	H	M	M	L	H	M	L	-
Federated States of Micronesia	114,800	701	M	M	H	-	L	H	H	L	-
Fiji	752,700	18,272	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	L
Kiribati	76,000	725	L	M	H	-	L	H	H	L	-
Marshall Islands	50,000	181	H	H	H	-	L	H	H	L	-
Nauru	10,500	21	L	L	L	-	L	H	L	L	-
Niue	2,300	258	H	H	L	-	M	H	M	L	-
Palau	21,600	494	H	H	M	-	L	H	M	L	-
Papua New Guinea	4,056,000	462,243	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H
Samoa	163,000	2,935	H	H	H	H	M	L	H	H	M
Solomon Islands	337,000	28,370	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H
Tokelau	1,600	12	H	H	H	-	L	H	H	L	-
Tonga	97,400	720	H	H	H	M	H	H	H	L	H
Tuvalu	9,100	24	H	M	H	-	L	M	H	L	-
Vanuatu	156,500	12,200	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H	H

 

 

In 1994 with the assistance of the UNDP the PICs started the implementation of the current regional “South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme” aimed to strengthen national capacities and institution building in disaster management.

 

Fiji now has a National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), which is secretariat to a National Disaster Management Council (NDMC) that reports directly to the Cabinet. The NDMC has subcommittees for mitigation; emergency operations; education and preparedness. The NDMO coordinates operations at the national level for which it has set up cross-sectoral working groups.  The structure is taken down through national administrative structures to the divisional, district and village levels. The non-governmental sector is included at all levels.

 

Disaster Management is supported by Fiji’s National Disaster Management Plan and the 1999 Fiji Natural Disaster Act that gave the plan legislative powers.

 

 

 

Figure 3. Disaster Management structure in Fiji.

 

 

Under the guidance of SPDRP other PICs are developing similarly as Fiji in establishing their disaster management structures. All are supported by training, education and awareness programs, development of manuals and implementation of pilot mitigation projects.

 

Level of Scientific Research

Not much is known to people outside research circles of the level of scientific research relating to El Niño in Fiji. The Fiji Meteorological Service has reported undertaking studies on the relationships between ENSO and Fiji’s climate, particularly on rainfall and tropical cyclones (running statistical analysis of the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones during past ENSO and normal years, since 1840). But as research does not include sophisticated studies such as interactions among SSTs, Fiji’s climate and the behavior of South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).

The Fiji Meteorology Services (FMS)

FMS is responsible for weather research and forecasting and is the sole agency with interest in weather research in Fiji. Prior to the 1992 El Niño drought, there has been little El Niño research in Fiji. However since the Fiji Meteorology Services has a long-term close association with the national meteorological services of New Zealand and Australia, it is recipient to their research findings and analysis. Establishing the Pacific ENSO Application Centre (PEAC) in Hawaii has added another support agency to Fiji. Recently the FMS Nadi Centre has been designated a Regional World Meteorology Office increasing the number of supporting agencies to Fiji and the region.

 

The Fiji ENSO Phenomenon

 

The FMS acknowledged in its country report presented at “The Regional Workshop on ENSO Impacts On Water Resources in the Pacific” that it is important to identify the level of scientific research relating to El Niño in Fiji. It provided the following description of El Niño in relation to the region surrounding Fiji:

 

El Niño is the term used for the oceanographic phenomenon that is an extensive warming of the upper ocean in the tropical eastern Pacific, lasting three or more seasons. In normal conditions, known as the Walker Circulation, the relatively cold water of the Humboldt Current flows northward along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador to the Equator when it turns westward and flows into the central Pacific along the Equator. As it flows west along the equator, the tropical sun heats the water. During these normal conditions, the equatorial western Pacific is about three to eight degrees centigrade warmer than the Eastern waters. Typically, the trade winds collect moisture from these warm seas and carry it towards Indonesia. Moving over normally warm waters, moist air rises to high altitudes and is associated with regions of low air pressure that produces cumulonimbus clouds and rain. At high altitudes the air circulates back toward the east before sinking over the eastern Pacific Ocean bringing with it high pressure systems and dry conditions. This pressure gradient draws the moist trade winds toward the Australian/Indonesian region. This climatic system is illustrated in Figure 3. The intensity of this system varies between years.  The consequent shift back and forth of the atmospheric mass and pressure patterns along the equator is known as Southern Oscillation (SO). The oscillation is irregular, but normally occurs every two to seven years.

 

Since El Niño events are closely linked with SO, they are collectively known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The magnitude and the phase of ENSO events are measured by calculating the difference in atmospheric pressure at surface between Tahiti and Darwin. The relationship is known as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

 

During ENSO years the Walker Circulation weakens. An early sign of an approaching El Niño event is the appearance of anomalously warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific off the coast of Peru. As the event develops, the trade winds weaken and may even turn eastward.  The area of warm water usually found in the western Pacific cools with the warmest water being displaced eastward to the central and eastern Pacific. Sustained warming in excess of one degree centigrade above normal is observed in this NIÑO3 region (the expanse of ocean from 150ºW to 90ºW between 5ºN to 5ºS).  Lower than normal pressure is observed in the eastern tropical Pacific and higher than normal pressure is observed over Indonesia and northern Australia. The region of high pressure develops over the western Pacific, whereas regions of low pressure develop over central and eastern Pacific, hence the SOI is strongly negative. Abnormally dry conditions are observed in the western Pacific with the eastward shift of the thunderstorm activities to the central and eastern Pacific.

 

 

Figure 4: Sea Temperature Differences During Normal and El Niño Conditions

 

 

 

Reference: FMS Paper:  1997-98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service; Nazmin Bi,  Fiji Meteorological Service.

 

Concurrent El Niño Impact Studies in Fiji

Owing to the unprecedented damaging impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño, the Fiji government asked the United Nations in August 1998 to undertake an independent assessment of the impacts of the El Niño-induced drought and advise on measures that could be used to alleviate its adverse effects.  The UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team identified emergency measures required to alleviate the immediate situation and its findings were used by the Fiji Government to help in planning the relief effort.  It undertook damage, needs and impact assessments of the worst affected areas and sectors.  In addition to the initial UNDAC study, the UNDP and New Zealand’s Overseas Development Assistance (NZODA) jointly sponsored a regional initiative entitled “The 1997-98 El Niño Socio-Economic Regional Study.”  This regional study was piloted in Fiji and Tonga and assessed the long-term impacts; identified vulnerable groups, estimated the likely extent and timing of the impacts, and recommended medium and long-term measures that could be used to mitigate the impact of future events.

There were a couple of important drought study-related events in 1999.

·         In June 1999 a national Fiji workshop was convened to discuss the findings of the UNDP/NZODA study and in association with the University of Hawaii. They provided two resource persons who had earlier completed drought-response-mitigation research work in the North Pacific countries based on the 1997-98 El Niño event.

·         With additional funding support from UNEP’s Water Unit and the British High Commission, in October 1999 Fiji hosted the Pacific Regional ENSO Water Resource Impacts Workshop. The Workshop, convened by SOPAC, was aimed at upgrading climate-related forecasting, assessment, planning and adaptation skills.  It brought together water resource planners, water supply managers, meteorologists and disaster managers, and gave them access to the necessary information and tools to benefit from new forecasting capabilities and understanding of the ENSO phenomenon. There were eighty participants from Pacific Island Countries together with representative of international and regional organizations.

 

Because SOPAC was coordinating these activities, it had the opportunity to extend the Fiji case study questionnaire survey to other Pacific countries.  An exciting discussion ensued at the regional workshop on forecasting needs.  Recommendations from this regional to improve forecasting and warning system are included in this report.

 

 Mention of El Niño in the Print Media

Neither the local media nor the general public was significantly aware of ENSO’s extremes, until the 1992 drought event. It is probable the local media first reported on El Niño in 1987, but not much search has been undertaken to determine for certain if El Niño had been publicly reported along with the earlier drought events.  However scientific journals and overseas dailies are accessible in the country by interested groups and individuals who seek to keep up with international news and events.  In 1997, the FMS had forecasted in April the development of an El Niño condition.  However, this was first reported in the media only in October.