SETTING :

 

1.     What is the socioeconomic setting of your country? (Include a brief description of the government mechanisms for dealing with climate-related impacts: the ministries, task forces, and public safety mechanisms, etc.)

 

The Republic of Cuba is an independent state, located in the Meso-American Caribbean Sea and at the entrance of The Gulf of Mexico. Cuba is the biggest insular state in this basin and it is constituted by an archipelago of 110,860 km² in area, 105,599 km² of which corresponds to the main island (Cuba) which gives the name to the country; the rest includes the Island of Youth and 1600 other islands and keys (Figure 1.1). Cuba is very near the continental territory of the United States. It is separated only by a narrow stretch of water between the United States (to the north) and Mexico (to the west).

 

The Republic of Cuba is divided administratively into fourteen provinces and these, in turn, are divided into municipalities. These are the basic administrative units and there are a total of 168 in the country. Additionally, a special municipality is constituted by the Island of Youth, the second in importance in the archipelago. The most western Province of Cuba is Pinar del Rio that is bordered on the West by the Strait of Yucatan. The easternmost Province is Guantánamo whose shores are bathed by the waters of the "Paso de los Vientos" which separate Cuba and Haiti.  The political and administrative capital of Cuba is Havana City, which, in turn, constitutes the smallest province in extension of the country.

 

 Plains constitute 82% of Cuban territory.  This landform constitutes the majority of fertile lands that support intense agricultural activity and makes up the main economic sector of the country.  The agricultural area covers 3,701,459 ha, of which 2,606,136 are devoted to the permanent cultivation of sugar cane (the main crop with 1,800,000 ha), coffee, cocoa and citrus fruits. Almost 3,000,000 ha of the Cuban territory are covered by forests. 53.7% of the arable land is in the hands of the State, while the rest (46.3%) belongs to private owners.

 

Cuba possesses a potential of 38,139 km³ of water per year, which means 1,293 km³ for each inhabitant. However, this potential depends in large measure on aquifers, which are open to the sea and concentrated mainly in the western half of the country. This is why the Cuban government designed a wide hydraulic infrastructure that possesses nearly 223 important dams and over 800 micro-dams to protect. This would enable the people to use this resource more. Among the country’s socioeconomic activities, agriculture is the higher water-consuming sector with 72%, followed by the population with 10% (Figure 1.2).

 

 

 

Figure 1.1. The Cuban Archipelago showing its main geographic features

 

 

                                                     
  

Figure 1.2. Use of water resources in Cuba

 

 

 

In 1997 the Cuban population was 11,093,152, which means a population density of 99.6 inhabitants per square kilometer. The rate of annual population growth is 4.9 per thousand inhabitants, with a mortality rate of 7.0 per one thousand inhabitants and a birthrate of 13.8 per thousand. The Cuban population has a high concentration index because 74.3% live in 570 human settlements, of which 55 are cities with a population of between 20,000 and 1 million inhabitants.  Another important characteristic of the Cuban population is that, with the exception of the capital of Havana City (with more than 2 million inhabitants), 1 million Cubans live in coastal settlements with a high vulnerability to the impact of coastal floods caused by severe weather events.

 

The Gross Domestic Product[1] of Cuba has had important variations in the last few years. At the beginning of the decade of the 1990s, the Cuban economy, whose development was very much linked to the economies of the socialist countries of Eastern Europe, suffered a severe loss of revenue caused by the disintegration of the USSR (its main commercial partner) and the rest of the socialist bloc. This, along with the permanency of the conditions of the economic blockade imposed by the Government of the United States since 1960, caused a growth rate of only 0.5 % for the Gross Domestic Product. Beginning in 2000, an important transformation occurred that included a bigger opening to foreign investment and the quick development of tourism. Increments above 2% of growth were registered with a stable tendency of continued growth. Already in 1997, the earnings in the tourist sector were triple those obtained in 1993 and the figure of 1 million tourists was surpassed. This has not been reached since 1959, when the current social system of socialist orientation settled in Cuba.

 

The climatic characteristics of Cuba are conditioned by the location of the archipelago at the northern limit of the tropical area, and by other features like the elongated form of the main Island (Cuba) with 5,746 kms of coast. Its proximity to North America as well as the influence of important atmospheric and oceanic systems such as the trade winds and the Gulf Stream, respectively, also influence Cuba’s climate.

 

The climate of Cuba can be considered tropical or tropical oceanic, characterized by a well-defined rainy season (occasionally called "wet season") with warm temperatures and a dry season where precipitation is scarce.

 

Cuba’s rainy season runs from May through October and accounts for nearly 70% of the annual total rain. The dry season runs through the remaining months (from November until April) and it is in this season that Cuba is affected by weather events characteristic of extratropical latitudes. Among these events are cold fronts and continental cold air outbreaks, called "Nortes" that are mainly responsible for temperatures in this season becoming slightly cooler than one would expect for a tropical climate.

 

Cuba does not have volcanic activity.  Seismic activity is relatively low level, and is concentrated almost exclusively in the southeastern portion of the country. Here earthquakes can occasionally produce damages of some importance.  As a result of the above-mentioned facts, it is possible to affirm that the main source of natural disasters in Cuba are meteorological events such as hurricanes that have the potential to cause severe damage to property, as well as loss of human lives. On the other hand, droughts and heavy precipitation are able to impact the agricultural sector and the country’s water supplies. For that reason, the Cuban government allocates considerable resources to the establishment of efficient mechanisms for the prevention and mitigation of natural disasters. The National System of Civil Defense as well as the study and monitoring of climate-related impacts by means of the Climate Monitoring Service are the main ways to cope with these extreme events and their impacts.

 

 

THE REPUBLIC OF CUBA’S CIVIL DEFENSE SYSTEM

 

This system was created to cope with possible damages caused by disasters such as hurricanes, heavy rains and coastal flooding, and other problems such as disease outbreaks and epidemics, plagues and problems in agriculture that affect the population and the economy. This system pays fundamental attention to the population's protection and it acts based on the coordinated participation of all of the state’s agencies, economic entities and social institutions.

 

The functional and structural organization of the System of Civil Defense of Cuba is based on the Law 75 of 1997 National Defense.  It responds to the principles in line with recent worldwide tendencies on the subject. The main mission of the System of Civil Defense is to protect the population and the economy in case of disastrous events, as well as the consequences of the deterioration of the environment.

 

The highest level of command in this System is that of the President of the Council of State. The chain of command then passes through the Minister of the Revolutionary Armed Forces, with the National Headquarters of the Civil Defense being the main executive agency of the System. At the province level and in municipalities the presidents of the respective assemblies of Poder Popular (Popular Power) exercise the command that in turn directs the Civil Defense at those levels.

 

The "defense zones" are simpler structures spread throughout the whole country. They are comprised of human establishments and other areas of economic and social interest. This structure facilitates an immediate response for handling the emergencies and is carried out by previously trained voluntary personnel.

 

Planning and organization of the measures in the case of disasters begins in the community, in working centers, (i.e., factories, general labor centers, etc.) state entities, schools, etc. This work continues in the municipalities and the provinces and concludes at the national level. Nevertheless, their main force resides in the community and in the broad participation of the population.   Plans of measures for all these levels exist for disasters according to the procedures established by Civil Defense Headquarters. This plan is based on the following aspects:

 

·         The results of studies on vulnerability and risk.

·         Measures of prevention, response and rehabilitation (by phases).

·         Preparedness at all levels of society.

·         Organization of the management.

·         Organization and assurance of communications.

·         General assurance actions.

·         Cooperation measures.

 

The national experience in response to and confrontation with disasters demonstrates that the current functional and structural organization adapts appropriately to a wide spectrum of situations generated by natural hazards.

 

EXISTING WARNING SYSTEM

 

Cuba has a system of warning by phone that allows us to warn the population about the prediction or imminence of a climate-related disaster. This can be activated at the national level or by the provinces. It allows us to send any information on the subject to the governments of the provinces and municipalities. As for the public, the broadcasting systems are used as well as the network of national and territorial television. The main economic and social concerns under risk have direct television lines to the centers of management of the Civil Defense in the nearest towns.

 

As a complement, the national emergency network of the Federation of Radio Amateurs of Cuba is used, which also has possibilities for international communication.

 

Cuba integrates the worldwide network of the International Red Cross into its own system with respect to early warning of disasters.  Likewise, Cuban air and marine vessels are incorporated into the system of emergency response, search and rescue.

 

The Institute of Meteorology of Cuba (InstMet) has established an extensive and permanent weather and climate monitoring system around the country. Plans and objective methods of prediction and warning exist in the case of meteorological problems. They are developed for different periods of time. In addition, by means of the Climate Center, the InstMet works intensively on climate monitoring in Cuba, which allows it to establish projections on its behavior from one to several months in advance. In fact, an integral system that acts as the first source of information about climatic variability and the extreme events exists (linked or not with the El Niño).  Its general structure can be observed in Figure 1.3.

 

Figure 1.3 National Climate Monitoring System

 

 

The Climate Monitoring System generates three basic products:

 

·         The Climate Monitoring Bulletin (current behavior of climate at the regional and national scales, monthly climatic predictions and monthly development of any El Niño event).

·         Seasonal predictions, including El Niño forecasts.

·         Special climate early warning (including the state of drought conditions and the possible evolution and impacts of the El Niño signal).

 

These systems, although they cannot be considered as optimum due to material and technical limitations in the country, allow us to understand appropriately the evolution of climate-related hazards and in most cases to take timely response measures.

 

 

2.    What are the climate-related and other natural hazards affecting your country? (List them in order of concern.)

 

TROPICAL CYCLONES

 

The Cuban archipelago is located in one of the six-cyclogenic regions of the Earth. In this region approximately 11% of the total number of tropical cyclones (TC) are formed, a frequency surpassed only by the Australian and the North Pacific regions.

 

Among the severe weather events that affect Cuba, the TC occupies an important place. The causes that establish the importance of the TC are multiple and are not associated only with the direct impact that they cause. Their frequency and their links with other meteorological variables make them an unquestionable part of Cuba’s climate.

 

The number of tropical hurricanes that affects Cuba annually is very variable, with totals that run from zero to 5 tropical storms (for the case of hurricanes from zero up to 4). Between 1900 and 1995 there were only 31 years when the country was not affected by a TC; 35 years with only one; 18 with two; 8 years with three; 2 years with 4; and the year 1933, 5 TCs affected the Cuban territory.

 

The TCs’ appearance presents a clearly defined seasonality. The month of highest frequency is October, followed by September, August and November. It is interesting to note that the secondary maximum observed in June occurs at the beginning of the season. A similar behavior occurs in the case of hurricanes, most of which have originated in the Caribbean Sea (57%), while the remainder originated in oceanic areas (43%).

 

On average one tropical cyclone affects Cuba each year, while a hurricane affects Cuba once every two years, on average. The Western region is the most affected (see chart), while the Central region has been less affected. The impacts in the west can occur at any time throughout the entire hurricane season (June-November), even in May. Such is not the case in the rest of the country.

 

September and October are the major months of TC influence in all regions, with the exception of the central region where the major influence occurs in October. A distinctive feature of the eastern region is that it is more affected in November.

 

Table 2.1. Observed return period (in years) in Tropical Cyclones impacts in 3 Cuban regions.

 

REGION	trop. cyclone	TROP. storm	HURriCANe
Western	1.3	2.4	2.6
Central	3.0	5.6	6.3
Eastern	2.3	4.5	4.8

 

In the case of hurricanes, the western region is the most affected during the whole season (except for the maximum, which takes place in November in the eastern region) with an average of one hurricane every 1.9 years. In the western and central regions the most impacting month is October with averages of one hurricane each 7.3 and 15.8 years, respectively. In eastern Cuba the month of most impacts is September, with a hurricane frequency of once in 13.6 years. 

DROUGHT

 

The complexity of the analysis of drought starts with its very definition. In fact a unique definition that satisfies all the interests does not exist. Nevertheless, the International Meteorological Vocabulary (O.M.M., Not. 182, 1992) defines drought as follows: "a period of abnormally dry meteorological conditions, sufficiently lingering so that the precipitation lack causes a serious hydrological imbalance." In the last decades, drought, as an extreme aspect of climatic variability, has increasingly affected parts of the planet, with dramatic impacts in numerous countries of Africa and Asia.

 

These climatic episodes in Cuba have also been on the increase in the last few decades, bringing very harmful consequences to agricultural production and the conservation of our soils, which tend to experience salinity and desertification in the coastal and semi-arid areas. Thus, the risk of drought in each region of the country is a very important factor to take into consideration for various socioeconomic activities. This should be a major consideration from the design to the planning stages to cope with these adverse events.

 

Studies about drought in Cuba (Lapinel, et. al. 1993), using 30 rainfall stations with long time series as reference and the analysis of climatological normals (1931-1960 and 1961-1990) for rainfalls, showed a decrease from the first to the second 30-year period by 10%, basically concentrated in the months of the rainy season. In the trimester June-August, the reduction was of 0.4 mm per day, which also corresponds with 10% of the norm for that trimester.

 

These results are compatible with those obtained for our region by Hulme et al., (1992), who referred to global changes of precipitation between these periods. A synthesized picture of years most affected by droughts in Cuba, during the 1941-1995 period, can be seen in Figure 2.1.

 

Figure  2.1   Annual percentage of provinces affected by drought

 

 

 

 

 

The case of increasing drought in Cuba seems to be representative of a variety of regional climate anomalies. The frequency of years with moderate and severe droughts was doubled in the second 30-year period in relation with the first, reducing the return period of this harmful phenomenon from 5 to 2.5 years, with a simultaneous increase of duration. The frequency of years with severe drought experienced a bigger increase between both periods, becoming from one to four times every 25 years.

 

The analysis of the 1971-1990 period (Lapinel, et. al., 1993) reflected important impacts to the south of the Province of Pinar del Rio, Havana, Sancti Spíritus and Guantánamo, as well as other specific parts of the country. The return period is two times every five years, and for the southeastern portion of Guantánamo, once every two years.

 

These drought events, if combined with high evaporation rates, can exhaust groundwater and decrease underground water reservoirs. The stresses that this causes for the vegetation are increased when occasionally droughts are interrupted by episodes of torrential rains. These processes cause intense soil erosion processes in grounds that lead to a poor vegetative cover and a high level of surface drainage capacity.

 

In Cuba, among other important meteorological and climatic events that occurred during the 1997-98 El Niño, (the most intense one in the 20^th century), was the normal dry season (November to April), which was extremely rainy from November to March. Subsequently, starting from the month of April until June, an intense and geographically extensive short-term drought affected the whole country, in particular the central and eastern regions.

 

The first signs of this drought began at the end of the November-March period when, despite rainy conditions, some parts of the eastern region began to report significant rainfall deficit.

 

The low amount of accumulated rainfall in April over the whole country generated favorable conditions for the possible evolution of drought. May was very dry too, and this drought was already established mainly in the central and eastern regions.

 

At the end of June (also a dry month throughout the whole country) the state of the drought had become critical in most parts of the central and eastern regions. It became evident that the deficit of the April-May-June trimester was the most severe in Cuba, the central region and the S. Spíritus, Camagüey, Granma and Guantánamo provinces.

 

In July 1998 favorable rainfall conditions led to the climatological average in most of the country, favoring a gradual return to normal conditions from a meteorological point of view in August. Some parts of the central and eastern regions registered significant deficits with respect to their accumulated totals at the end of the April-August semester.

 

HEAVY PRECIPITATION

 

Among disastrous meteorological phenomena, heavy precipitation constitutes one of the most frequent in Cuba. Big floods and the damages caused by this phenomenon occurred in the remote past. Nevertheless, as Cuba develops and activities like the agriculture and urbanization continue to grow, rainy events become much more important because they increase the potential for societal and environmental damage.

 

In Cuba heavy precipitation (HP) is considered to have occurred if the rainfall accumulation is 100 mm or more at a single location within 24 hours. Their occurrence is strongly conditioned by a combination of atmospheric circulation, at different spatial scales, and physical-geographical factors in a region. For that reason, these events are associated with the occurrence of certain typical circulation patterns over Cuba.  Alfonso and Florido (1992) described 12 basic circulation configurations linked to the HP, of which only two have mechanisms of certain tropical origin (tropical hurricanes and tropical waves). In the remaining ones, the mechanisms of interaction between tropical and extratropical patterns prevail. For their importance, the classic and quasistationary cold fronts and the tropical extension of high latitude waves should be noted.

 

During the 1965-1990 period, the HP occurred on an average of 85 days a year in the whole country. This frequency justifies the idea that this event is an element of the Climate of Cuba. The months with a greater frequency of heavy precipitation are June (western and central region), October (eastern region) and November in the northeast of Holguín and Guantánamo.

 

An interesting aspect is the occurrence of extreme values in the HP in the period 1977-1997. Although the exact comparison with the remote past is impossible because of notable differences in the observational networks, in some cases the magnitude of floods can be used for comparison. This way, for example, floods of the end of the 19^th century described by Gutiérrez (1927) can be considered to have been of the same magnitude or higher than those observed in 1982 and 1988.

 

In fact, it seems clear that the extreme precipitation that occurred in the 1980s do not have an equal in the 20^th century. It is important to point out that the increase of HP related with the classic cold fronts has produced a relative increase in big precipitation events in the dry season, starting from 1977.

 

Precipitation connected with the Mesoscale Convective Complex of June 1982 (Alfonso and Naranjo, 1989) and, of May 31 to June 2, 1988 (Fernández, 1988) can be considered extraordinary events because of the expansion of the affected area.

 

Related to ENSO, years under the influence of this event in the period 1965-1998 showed a notable increase in the number of days with HP, with an average of 110 days.

 

Strong ENSOs have heavy precipitation associated with extratropical lows in the Gulf of Mexico and a remarkable absence of HP due to tropical cyclones. Weaker ENSOs show an increase of HP events because of slow moving cold fronts and tropical waves.

 

SEVERE LOCAL STORMS

 

The intense and destructive thunderstorms are known in Cuba from its history. There is evidence that the aboriginal population first gave the name of hurricane to tropical cyclones and tornadoes produced by severe local storms (SLS). In general, these storm systems have a local character and the damages that take place are usually considerable only in relatively small areas, as their effects on the economy become more evident when they are analyzed as a group. Nevertheless, in some years their number is increased and their effects can be very significant throughout the country.

 

In Cuba, a thunderstorm is classified as an SLS, when one or several of the following phenomena are present (Alfonso, 1988):

 

·         Tornadoes

·         Wind gusts greater than 90 km/h.

·         Hail

·         Waterspouts

 

A day is registered as having an SLS when at least one SLS has been reported somewhere in the country. An SLS outbreak is said to have occurred when three or more storms have been reported in the same day. Starting from 1978, the Institute of Meteorology began a systematic study of SLS in Cuba. At the present time, a long chronology has been developed that picks up data from 1784 (Alfonso, 1994).

 

When the frequencies of SLS are analyzed by year, a small tendency toward an increase in the last 13 years can be observed. However, this tendency is not significant and it is likely to be linked to the remarkable improvement in detection systems. In this sense, the best presumption that we can make is that major trends did not exist in this period.

 

When conditions that favor the formation of SLS are analyzed, one finds clear different behaviors between El Niño and non-El Niño years. In particular, from February to mid-May, the frequency of occurrence of very intense pre-frontal squall lines is significantly higher in El Niño years.

 

Based on an analysis of 25 El Niño years, major SLS were not detected in only 4 of them, in particular devastating tornadoes. So, it can be assumed that in El Niño years the presence of episodes of extremely powerful examples should be expected. Table 2.2 lists some notable examples.

 

Table 2.2.  Five of the most devastating severe weather events in the last 60 years for the winter season in Cuba

 

 

If damages are compared for SLS throughout the years, a significant tendency can be observed toward more dangerous events with regard to their destructive capacity. Nevertheless, this conclusion should be taken with caution, because factors such as population growth, economic development and even the value of the currency in each historical period, make attribution difficult. Nevertheless, it seems to be a fact that the most numerous and the most destructive SLS outbreaks in the century in Cuba were linked to the years in the 1980s and the 1990s.

 

3.What was the level of scientific research in your country relating to El Niño?

 

Currently, The Institute of Meteorology of Cuba, through its National Center for Climate, possesses the leadership on scientific investigations related to El Niño and its impacts in Cuba. Besides this function, among others given by the Cuban State, the Center for Climate possesses a high level of scientific experience and a structure that favors and guarantees a continued capacity building process for the development of research.

 

The first two studies on the El Niño carried out in Cuba (Meulenert 1991, Cardenas and Pérez, 1991) were devoted to the evaluation of the impact of this event on the weather and climate in the country.  In 1994 important advances in the study of the El Niño cycle occurred and a first operational method for the prediction of monthly precipitation and temperature explicitly included predictors linked to El Niño.

 

 By the middle of the 1990s, the influence of ENSO on cyclonic activity in the Atlantic and the Caribbean was studied and a seasonal prediction method was developed that included ENSO information.

 

In 1995 another important step was taken in Cuba for the development of research related to ENSO. In that year, in the National Scientific Program "The Global Changes and the Evolution of the Cuban Environment", a 5-year project, was structured with ENSO as its central objective - its predictability, impacts and modulation effects on Cuba's Climate.

Thus, we can conclude that at the time of the 1997-98 El Niño, scientific development in Cuba on El Niño was high, and allowed for efficient monitoring and prediction.

 

 4.   Identify and document (with citations, if possible) the historical interest, if any, in the country (popular, political, media, etc.) in El Niño before the onset of the forecast and/or impact of the 1997-98 event.

 

Cuban interest about El Niño underwent a major change in the 1990s, passing from being a mysterious and virtually unknown element for policy makers and the public, to become one of the main considerations when speaking about topics related to climate. It may be even better known than climate change.

 

In the first trimester of 1983 Cuba suffered the serious impact of severe meteorological phenomena (tornadoes, heavy rains, storm surges, etc). However, it is interesting that at that time, none of these events was linked with El Niño. The Granma Newspaper (the official organ of the Communist Party of Cuba) dedicated considerable space to report on the serious consequences of these phenomena that literally destroyed crops and disrupted numerous socioeconomic activities. The 1 March 1983 issue of Granma reported the losses in the tobacco sector, reflecting the view of the harvesters that something unusual was happening and requesting that meteorologists study these events more deeply. However, there was no link with what happened to El Niño.

 

The first reference in the media to El Niño and its effects in Cuba were made belatedly on 21 February 1987, when Granma published an article of journalist Orfilio “El Niño Return?” In this article he explained that,  "The phenomenon that caused serious atmospheric disturbances 4 years ago [in 1983] is still an enigma for the scientists." The article also referred to the winter season 1982-83: "An unusual climatic disorder made its appearance in the World."

 

In the 1990s - due to the development of scientific research in this field, to the creation of the first climate monitoring system in the country and to the accumulated international experience - the interest of the state and the general population in El Niño increased. The finances granted to research projects increased and more intense work began on informing the public and the official media.

 

 Soon after the 1994-95 event, interest intensified in an important way with respect to news coverage. On 22 January 1995 the newspaper Tribune of Havana published an article,  "When La Niña was expected...An El Niño appears." A reporting style characterized by interviews with scientific personnel linked to El Niño began. The objective of this style was to clarify the issues and to inform the population. This approach continues to the present and has contributed in a decisive way to an improved perception about these events. The best example of this approach was an article published in Granma in January of 1997, "The war of ENSO will be announced" a few months before the onset of the 1997-98 El Niño was predicted for the first time. This article summarized in a brilliant way the state of current scientific knowledge about El Niño and it contributed in an important way to prepare the population and policy makers for the event’s impacts.