Eco-restructuring: Implications for sustainable development

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Eco-restructuring: Implications for sustainable development

Robert U. Ayres, Editor
Paul M. Weaver, Assistant Editor

With the editorial support of Gilberto Gallopín, Walther Manshard, R. Socolow, Mikoto Usui

United Nations University Press
TOKYO - NEW YORK - PARIS

© The United Nations University, 1998

The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University.

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ISBN 92-808-0984-9

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Eco-restructuring: implications for sustainable development/
Robert U. Ayres, editor; Paul M. Weaver, assistant editor; with the editorial support of Gilberto Galloping... [et al.].
p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN 92-808-0984-9 (pbk.)

1. Sustainable development.
2. Environmental policy. I. Ayres, Robert U. II. Weaver, Paul M. (Paul Michael). 1956
HC79.E5 E217 1998
333.7 - ddc21

98-8938
CIP

The United Nations University is an organ of the United Nations established by the General Assembly in 1972 to be an international community of scholars engaged in research, advanced training, and the dissemination of knowledge related to the pressing global problems of human survival, development, and welfare. Its activities focus mainly on peace and conflict resolution, development in a changing world. and science and technology in relation to human welfare. The University operates through a worldwide network of research and postgraduate training centres, with its planning and coordinating headquarters in Tokyo.

The United Nations University Press, the publishing division of the UNU, publishes scholarly books and periodicals in the social sciences, humanities, and pure and applied natural sciences related to the University's research.

Contents

1. Eco-restructuring: The transition to an ecologically sustainable economy

Introduction: On sustainability
The need for holistic systems analysis
Environmental threats and (un)sustainability indicators
Sharpening the debate
Non-controversial issues: Population, resources, and technology
Controversial issues: Pollution, productivity, and biospheric stability

On toxicity
The stability of the biosphere: The impossibility of computing the odds
Technical preconditions for sustainability

Finding the least-cost (least-pain) path
Concluding comments
Notes
References

Part I: Restructuring resource use

2. The biophysical basis of eco-restructuring: An overview of current relations between human economic activities and the global system

Introduction
The earth system
The climate system and climatic change
Climatic change and vulnerability
Biological diversity
Fresh water
Soils
The solid earth (lithosphere)
Land-cover and land-use changes
Human impacts and industrial metabolism
The case of West Africa
Outlook

3. Ecological process engineering: The potential of bio-processing

Editor's note
Introduction
The current situation: The status of biotechnologies
Potential and promises
Market penetration by biotechnology
Barriers to penetration
Final remarks
Notes
References

4. Materials futures: Pollution prevention, recycling, and improved functionality

Editor's introduction
Background
Strategies to increase materials productivity
Materials technology
Material attributes
Material performance trends
Conclusions
Notes
References

5. Global energy futures: The long-term perspective for eco-restructuring

Introduction
What is the energy system?
Energy system inefficiencies
The deep future energy system
Transition and the rate of change of the energy system
North-South disparity and sustainable energy systems
Concluding remarks
Notes
References

6. Fuel decarbonization for fuel cell applications and sequestration of the separated CO₂

The challenge of stabilizing the atmosphere
Flue gas decarbonization vs. fuel gas decarbonization
Lifecycle CO₂ emissions - without and with CO₂ sequestration
Options for sequestering CO₂
Framing the cost analysis for CO₂ sequestration
Major findings of the sequestration cost analysis
Appendix A: The importance of the water-gas shift reaction in fuel decarbonization
Appendix B: Biomass CO₂ emission offset potential in a world where some coal-rich regions cannot or will not reduce emissions
Appendix C: Pipeline transport of hydrogen
Acknowledgements
Notes
References

7. Photovoltaics

Introduction
The technological potential of PV
PV costs
A PV market diffusion strategy
Possible PV adoption and diffusion scenarios
Concluding remarks: PV and eco-restructuring
Notes
Bibliography

Part II: Restructuring sectors and the sectoral balance of the economy

8. Global eco-restructuring and technological change in the twenty-first century

Globalization
Population growth and economic growth
Environmental pressures for global change
Scenario analysis and the use of materials
The challenge for eco-restructuring
Concluding remarks
Notes
References

9. Agro-eco-restructuring: Potential for sustainability

Editor's note
The broad situation
Identifying the limiting factors
The technological feasibility of sustainable agriculture
The possible course towards sustainable change
Final remarks
Notes
References

10. The restructuring of tropical land-use systems

Introduction
Models of rural development
The need for integrated solutions in tropical land use
Strategic issues
Concluding remarks
Notes
References

11. The restructuring of transport, logistics, trade, and industrial space use

Introduction
The significance of freight transport
Past growth and patterns of freight transport development
Spatial and transport outcomes
Future developments affecting freight volumes and patterns
The scope for reducing freight volumes
Taking up the potential
Conclusion
Notes
References

12. National and international policy instruments and institutions for eco-restructuring

Introduction
Building on small agreements
Economic policy instruments and mechanisms
International distributional implications
A precondition for social breakthroughs in the context of developing societies
Issues of science and technology for development
A future united nations system
References

Contributors

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